MS Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-15

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MS Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$3.42 vs. cons $2.93 MEDIUM
MS Report Equities revenue BEAT pred ~$5.15B vs. cons $4.36B HIGH
MS Report Wealth Management net new assets BEAT pred ~$62B vs. cons $55B MEDIUM
MS Guide Wealth Management net interest income BETTER guide ~$2.28B vs. cons $2.22B (2026Q3) MEDIUM
MS Guide Wealth Management pretax margin UNCHANGED guide ~30.0% vs. cons 30.0% (FY2026) MEDIUM
MS Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +3.2% MEDIUM
MS Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.5% (FADE) A broad Q2 beat should drive initial upside, but event-heavy equities and underwriting revenue likely imply normalization toward a ~$19.4B quarterly revenue run rate versus ~$19.8B consensus in the out-period, limiting estimate revisions and causing part of the day-1 move to fade. MEDIUM