MS Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-15

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MS Report Diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$3.05 vs. cons $2.93 MEDIUM
MS Report Total net revenues BEAT pred ~$20.05B vs. cons $19.70B MEDIUM
MS Report Wealth Management net new assets BEAT pred ~$62B vs. cons $55B MEDIUM
MS Guide Wealth Management net interest income BETTER guide ~$2.24B vs. cons $2.20B (3Q26) MEDIUM
MS Guide Wealth Management pre-tax margin UNCHANGED guide ~30.0% vs. cons 30.0% (2H26) HIGH
MS Guide Investment-banking pipeline / 2H fee outlook BETTER guide ~$4.35B vs. cons $4.20B (2H26 investment-banking revenues) LOW
MS Guide Full-year effective tax rate UNCHANGED guide ~22.5% vs. cons 22.5% (FY26) HIGH
MS Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.5% MEDIUM
MS Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.5% (FADE) A ~$3.05 EPS print versus $2.93 consensus and ~$20.05B revenue versus $19.70B should support an initially positive reaction, but the likely 2H26 investment-banking guide of ~$4.35B versus $4.20B is only modestly above an already elevated bar. With Wealth margin guided near 30.0% versus 30.0% consensus and the tax-rate outlook unchanged at 22.5% versus 22.5%, out-period EPS revisions should be limited; the initial beat is therefore likely to fade rather than drive a sustained rerating. MEDIUM