| MTB |
Report |
Net operating EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$4.72 vs. cons $4.66 |
MEDIUM |
| MTB |
Report |
Revenue (TE NII + fees) |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.48B vs. cons $2.46B |
MEDIUM |
| MTB |
Report |
Average CRE loan balances (the 'show-me' inflection) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$23.4B vs. cons ~$23.5B |
LOW |
| MTB |
Guide |
FY26 Net interest income guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$7.2–7.35B (bottom half) vs. cons ~$7.28B (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| MTB |
Guide |
FY26 Fee income guide |
BETTER |
guide ~$2.75B (top of/above range) vs. cons ~$2.70B (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| MTB |
Guide |
NIM trajectory |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~3.70% (high-3.60s) vs. cons ~3.68% (Q2/2H'26) |
MEDIUM |
| MTB |
Guide |
Q2 buyback pace / CET1 |
UNCHANGED |
guide CET1 ~10.1% (toward 10% floor) vs. cons ~10.2% (Q2'26) |
MEDIUM |
| MTB |
Guide |
Net charge-offs / credit |
BETTER |
guide ~30bps vs. cons ~33bps (Q2'26 NCOs) |
MEDIUM |
| MTB |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.5% |
— |
LOW |
| MTB |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-2.5% (FADE) |
A modest, widely-expected EPS/revenue beat is unlikely to satisfy a name up ~19% YTD sitting at all-time highs with elevated positioning; unless CRE clearly inflects positive and NIM holds well above the high-3.60s guide, the print is a 'sell-the-news' setup. Management's conservative out-period math — NII trending to the bottom half of the range and NIM guided to give back to high-3.60s — implies flat-to-lower forward NII estimates even after a headline beat, so out-quarter EPS revisions drift down. That out-period drag, plus rich valuation, pulls the stock lower over the week (fade), partially cushioned by a constructive bank-tape read-across (JPM/WFC beats) and the fee-guide raise. |
LOW |