{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Net operating EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$4.72 vs. cons $4.66",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Revenue (TE NII + fees)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.48B vs. cons $2.46B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Average CRE loan balances (the 'show-me' inflection)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$23.4B vs. cons ~$23.5B",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Net interest income guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$7.2\u20137.35B (bottom half) vs. cons ~$7.28B (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Fee income guide",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.75B (top of/above range) vs. cons ~$2.70B (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "NIM trajectory",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~3.70% (high-3.60s) vs. cons ~3.68% (Q2/2H'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 buyback pace / CET1",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide CET1 ~10.1% (toward 10% floor) vs. cons ~10.2% (Q2'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net charge-offs / credit",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~30bps vs. cons ~33bps (Q2'26 NCOs)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A modest, widely-expected EPS/revenue beat is unlikely to satisfy a name up ~19% YTD sitting at all-time highs with elevated positioning; unless CRE clearly inflects positive and NIM holds well above the high-3.60s guide, the print is a 'sell-the-news' setup. Management's conservative out-period math \u2014 NII trending to the bottom half of the range and NIM guided to give back to high-3.60s \u2014 implies flat-to-lower forward NII estimates even after a headline beat, so out-quarter EPS revisions drift down. That out-period drag, plus rich valuation, pulls the stock lower over the week (fade), partially cushioned by a constructive bank-tape read-across (JPM/WFC beats) and the fee-guide raise.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}