| MTB |
Report |
EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$4.75 vs. cons $4.66 |
MEDIUM |
| MTB |
Report |
Net interest income (taxable-equivalent) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$1.78B vs. cons $1.79B |
MEDIUM |
| MTB |
Report |
Noninterest (fee) income |
BEAT |
pred ~$682M vs. cons $672.8M |
LOW |
| MTB |
Guide |
FY2026 Net interest income guidance |
LOWER |
guide ~$7.25B vs. cons ~$7.30B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MTB |
Guide |
FY2026 Fee income guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~$2.76B vs. cons ~$2.70B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MTB |
Guide |
Capital return / buyback pace (CET1 ~10.3-10.4%) |
BETTER |
guide ~$1.3B Q3 buyback vs. cons ~$1.0B (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| MTB |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-0.7% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| MTB |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-1.8% (FADE) |
Stock enters the print near 52-week highs with consensus PT already roughly matching price, so even a modest EPS beat (driven mainly by credit/buyback, not core NII) has a high bar to re-rate higher. Management's NII guide staying cautious (bottom half of $7.2-7.35B) against a Fed that may be leaning toward reversing cuts rather than extending them (deposit-beta mirror-image risk) gives sell-side room to trim out-period (2027) NII/EPS estimates even after an in-line-to-modest beat, consistent with Wolfe's below-peer growth/operating-leverage thesis. Peer read-through this week (GS/JPM surging on capital-markets strength) sets a high bar that MTB, as a spread-driven bank, can't match on fee lines, increasing the chance of relative underperformance and continued negative revisions over the following days. |
MEDIUM |