{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$4.75 vs. cons $4.66",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net interest income (taxable-equivalent)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.78B vs. cons $1.79B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Noninterest (fee) income",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$682M vs. cons $672.8M",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Net interest income guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$7.25B vs. cons ~$7.30B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Fee income guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.76B vs. cons ~$2.70B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Capital return / buyback pace (CET1 ~10.3-10.4%)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.3B Q3 buyback vs. cons ~$1.0B (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -0.7,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.8,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock enters the print near 52-week highs with consensus PT already roughly matching price, so even a modest EPS beat (driven mainly by credit/buyback, not core NII) has a high bar to re-rate higher. Management's NII guide staying cautious (bottom half of $7.2-7.35B) against a Fed that may be leaning toward reversing cuts rather than extending them (deposit-beta mirror-image risk) gives sell-side room to trim out-period (2027) NII/EPS estimates even after an in-line-to-modest beat, consistent with Wolfe's below-peer growth/operating-leverage thesis. Peer read-through this week (GS/JPM surging on capital-markets strength) sets a high bar that MTB, as a spread-driven bank, can't match on fee lines, increasing the chance of relative underperformance and continued negative revisions over the following days.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}