MTB Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-15

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MTB Report Diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$4.73 vs. cons $4.66 MEDIUM
MTB Report Taxable-equivalent net interest income IN-LINE pred ~$1.805B vs. cons $1.790B MEDIUM
MTB Report Total noninterest income BEAT pred ~$681M vs. cons $672.8M MEDIUM
MTB Guide Taxable-equivalent net interest income LOWER guide ~$7.24B vs. cons $7.27B (FY2026) MEDIUM
MTB Guide Fee income BETTER guide ~$2.80B vs. cons $2.78B (FY2026) MEDIUM
MTB Guide CET1 target and implied capital return BETTER guide ~10.0% vs. cons 10.1% (FY2026 year-end) MEDIUM
MTB Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.3% MEDIUM
MTB Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.4% (FADE) The initial EPS and fee-income beats should support day 1, but FY2026 taxable-equivalent NII of ~$7.24B vs. consensus ~$7.27B implies limited or slightly negative out-period estimate revisions, causing most of the initial residual gain to fade by day 5. LOW