MTB Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-15

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MTB Report Diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$4.76 vs. cons $4.66 MEDIUM
MTB Report Taxable-equivalent net interest income BEAT pred ~$1.82B vs. cons $1.79B MEDIUM
MTB Report Total revenue BEAT pred ~$2.49B vs. cons $2.46B MEDIUM
MTB Guide FY2026 taxable-equivalent NII UNCHANGED guide ~$7.25B vs. cons $7.25B (FY2026) MEDIUM
MTB Guide FY2026 fee income BETTER guide ~$2.80B vs. cons $2.75B (FY2026) MEDIUM
MTB Guide FY2026 GAAP expense UNCHANGED guide ~$5.60B vs. cons $5.60B (FY2026) HIGH
MTB Guide FY2026 average loans UNCHANGED guide ~$141.0B vs. cons $141.0B (FY2026) MEDIUM
MTB Guide FY2026 net charge-offs / average loans UNCHANGED guide ~40 bps vs. cons 40 bps (FY2026) HIGH
MTB Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.2% MEDIUM
MTB Return 5-day cumulative residual +3.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A >1% EPS/NII beat, confirmation that CRE is inflecting, and fee-income guidance moving above the prior $2.775B ceiling should lift FY2026/FY2027 EPS and capital-return assumptions; unchanged NII and credit guidance limits upside but should not negate estimate revisions. MEDIUM