NFLX Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-16

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
NFLX Report Q2'26 Revenue IN-LINE pred ~$12.63B vs. cons ~$12.58B HIGH
NFLX Report Q2'26 Diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$0.83 vs. cons ~$0.79 MEDIUM
NFLX Report Q2'26 Operating margin BEAT pred ~33.4% vs. cons ~32.6% MEDIUM
NFLX Guide Q3'26 Revenue guide BETTER guide ~$13.05B vs. cons ~$12.95B (Q3'26) MEDIUM
NFLX Guide FY26 Revenue framework UNCHANGED guide ~$50.7-51.7B vs. cons ~$51.2B (FY26) HIGH
NFLX Guide FY26 Operating margin UNCHANGED guide ~31.5% vs. cons ~31.5% (FY26) HIGH
NFLX Guide FY26 Ad revenue trajectory UNCHANGED guide ~$3.0B (roughly 2x) vs. cons ~$3.0B (FY26) MEDIUM
NFLX Guide H1'26 Engagement (view-hours/quality metric) UNKNOWN pred ~flat-to-up view-hrs/H1 report vs. cons feared decline (H1'26) LOW
NFLX Guide FY26 Free cash flow UNCHANGED guide ~$12.5B vs. cons ~$12.5B (FY26) MEDIUM
NFLX Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +6.0% MEDIUM
NFLX Return 5-day cumulative residual +7.5% (STABILIZE) Classic rope-a-dope: stock is down ~32% from the April high near a 2-yr low with washed-out sentiment and bullishly-positioned options into the print. An EPS/margin beat plus a reaffirmed FY revenue/margin/FCF framework and an in-line-to-slightly-better Q3 guide relieves the engagement panic and drives a sharp day-1 relief pop. Into day 5 it stabilizes rather than fully fades: valuation is de-risked and oversold, but because the FY guide is only reaffirmed (not meaningfully raised) and the engagement debate is unresolved, out-period estimate revisions are muted—so the pop holds without strong further follow-through. LOW