NFLX Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-16

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
NFLX Report Q2'26 Revenue IN-LINE pred ~$12.65B vs. cons $12.58B MEDIUM
NFLX Report Q2'26 Operating Margin BEAT pred ~33.0% vs. cons/guide 32.6% MEDIUM
NFLX Report Q2'26 Diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$0.85 vs. cons $0.79 MEDIUM
NFLX Guide Q3'26 Revenue Guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$13.0B vs. cons $13.05B (Q3 2026) LOW
NFLX Guide FY2026 Operating Margin Guidance UNCHANGED guide ~31.5% vs. cons 31.5% (FY2026) MEDIUM
NFLX Guide FY2026 Ad Revenue Target BETTER guide ~$3.0B vs. cons $2.8B (FY2026) LOW
NFLX Guide FY2026 Revenue Guidance Range UNCHANGED guide ~$50.7-51.7B vs. cons $51.2B (FY2026) MEDIUM
NFLX Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.2% MEDIUM
NFLX Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.3% (FADE) Beaten-down stock (near 2-yr lows, bullish option skew) likely rallies on a modest top/bottom-line beat and reaffirmed FY margin/revenue guide, but the Q3 guide implies further deceleration (mid-to-low teens growth lapping tougher comps) and H2 content-amortization/engagement questions remain unresolved; sell-side is likely to trim out-year growth/ad-revenue estimates even after a Q2 beat, causing the initial pop to fade as the print doesn't resolve the structural growth-slowdown debate (YouTube share loss, WBD M&A overhang, engagement decline) that drove the 2026 de-rating. LOW