NFLX Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-16

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
NFLX Report Q2 2026 revenue IN-LINE pred ~$12.64B vs. cons $12.58B MEDIUM
NFLX Report Q2 2026 operating income BEAT pred ~$4.17B vs. cons $4.11B MEDIUM
NFLX Report Q2 2026 diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$0.81 vs. cons $0.79 MEDIUM
NFLX Guide Q3 2026 revenue BETTER guide ~$13.10B vs. cons $13.02B (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
NFLX Guide Q3 2026 diluted EPS BETTER guide ~$0.84 vs. cons $0.83 (Q3 2026) LOW
NFLX Guide Full-year revenue LOWER guide midpoint ~$51.35B vs. cons $51.44B (FY2026) MEDIUM
NFLX Guide Full-year operating margin UNCHANGED guide ~31.5% vs. cons 31.5% (FY2026) MEDIUM
NFLX Guide Advertising revenue UNCHANGED guide ~$3.0B vs. cons $3.0B (FY2026) HIGH
NFLX Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +3.8% MEDIUM
NFLX Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.2% (FADE) An in-line revenue print, profit beat and modestly better Q3 guide should trigger relief initially, but a ~$51.35B FY2026 midpoint vs. ~$51.44B consensus implies Q4 revenue of roughly $13.36B vs. consensus near $13.59B. That out-period shortfall should limit upward revisions and partially reverse the day-1 gain. MEDIUM