NFLX Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-16

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
NFLX Report Revenue IN-LINE pred ~$12.62B vs. cons $12.58B MEDIUM
NFLX Report Diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$0.83 vs. cons $0.79 MEDIUM
NFLX Report Operating margin IN-LINE pred ~32.7% vs. cons 32.6% MEDIUM
NFLX Guide Q3 revenue guidance LOWER guide ~$12.90B vs. cons $12.97B (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
NFLX Guide FY2026 revenue guidance midpoint LOWER guide ~$51.20B vs. cons $51.38B (FY2026) MEDIUM
NFLX Guide FY2026 operating-margin target UNCHANGED guide ~31.5% vs. cons 31.5% (FY2026) HIGH
NFLX Guide FY2026 advertising revenue commentary UNCHANGED guide ~$3.00B vs. cons $3.00B (FY2026) MEDIUM
NFLX Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -4.5% MEDIUM
NFLX Return 5-day cumulative residual -7.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) ~$12.90B Q3 revenue guidance versus ~$12.97B consensus and ~$51.20B FY2026 revenue midpoint versus ~$51.38B consensus would pull out-period revenue and EPS estimates lower despite a ~$0.83 versus ~$0.79 Q2 EPS beat; engagement-related uncertainty should keep the valuation multiple under pressure. MEDIUM