NFLX Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-16

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
NFLX Report Advertising Revenue (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$700M vs. cons $666M MEDIUM
NFLX Report Operating Margin (Q2 2026) MISS pred ~32.5% vs. cons 32.81% MEDIUM
NFLX Report Net Subscriber Adds (Q2 2026) MISS pred ~3.5M vs. cons 3.93M MEDIUM
NFLX Guide Q3 2026 Revenue BETTER guide ~$11.8B vs. cons $11.53B MEDIUM
NFLX Guide Q3 2026 Operating Margin LOWER guide ~29.5% vs. cons 32.8% HIGH
NFLX Guide FY 2026 Revenue UNCHANGED maintain $50.7B-$51.7B vs. cons $51.33B HIGH
NFLX Guide FY 2026 Operating Margin LOWER maintain 31.5% vs. cons 31.71% HIGH
NFLX Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.0% MEDIUM
NFLX Return 5-day cumulative residual -5.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) FOLLOW-THROUGH — Q3 margin guide forces sell-side estimate cuts; residual continues negative over 5 days as models update MEDIUM