PLD Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-16

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
PLD Report Core FFO / share (incl. promotes) IN-LINE pred ~$1.54 vs. cons $1.53 MEDIUM
PLD Report Same-store NOI (cash) BEAT pred ~+8.0% vs. cons ~+7.0% MEDIUM
PLD Report Total revenue IN-LINE pred ~$2.16B vs. cons ~$2.15B LOW
PLD Guide FY2026 Core FFO/share (incl. promote) — midpoint raise BETTER guide ~$6.12-6.28 (mid ~$6.20) vs. cons ~$6.18 (FY2026) MEDIUM
PLD Guide FY2026 average occupancy UNCHANGED guide ~95.0-95.75% vs. cons ~95.3% (FY2026) MEDIUM
PLD Guide FY2026 development starts (owned & managed) UNCHANGED guide ~$4.5-5.5B vs. cons ~$5.0B (FY2026) LOW
PLD Guide SEGRO bid — raise/walk decision ahead of July 22 deadline UNKNOWN current bid 925p vs. SEGRO CBRE NAV ~1300p (decision by Jul 22, 2026) LOW
PLD Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +0.8% MEDIUM
PLD Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.5% (FADE) Base case is a modest beat-and-raise (penny FFO beat, small guidance midpoint bump) that supports a mildly positive day-1 residual, but out-period math is only incrementally better and premium valuation with analysts on the sidelines caps upside. The dominant swing is the SEGRO bid: the July 22 UK Takeover Code 'put-up-or-shut-up' deadline lands ~4 trading days after the print, so the window is a binary M&A overhang. Equity-issuance/dilution fear (the same concern that took shares from ~$148 to ~$135 after the June bid) keeps buyers cautious into that decision, so an initial operating pop fades/stabilizes rather than follows through. LOW