Reports: Wednesday, July 15, 2026
Event: 2Q26 earnings call
Stock close (July 14): $251.92 — up 19.1% YTD and 13.9% since the day before 1Q26 earnings.
PNC enters 2Q26 with unusually favorable setup: management reaffirmed its second-quarter outlook in early June and said results were tracking toward the high end of its stated ranges. The principal debate is therefore less about whether PNC can post good headline results and more about whether it can demonstrate that its organic-growth, NII-expansion, and FirstBank-integration stories are durable enough to support another increase in full-year expectations.
The cleanest read-through will be:
PNC’s stock appreciation into earnings raises the hurdle. A result merely consistent with guidance may not be enough; investors are likely looking for confirmation of a strong second half, particularly on NIM above 3%, loan growth, fee momentum, and capital return.
| Metric | 1Q26 actual | 2Q26 management outlook | Implied 2Q26 level / investor focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average loans | $350.9B | Up 2%–3% QoQ | Roughly $358B–$361B; organic C&I growth matters more than acquired balances |
| Net interest income | $3.961B | Up about 3% QoQ | About $4.08B |
| Fee income | $2.079B | Up 2.5% QoQ | About $2.13B |
| Other noninterest income | $125M | $150M–$200M | Watch the composition and any Visa-related effects |
| Total revenue | $6.165B | Up about 3.5% QoQ | About $6.38B |
| Core noninterest expense* | $3.671B | Up about 2% QoQ | About $3.74B |
| Integration expense | $97M | About $150M | Peak integration-cost quarter |
| Net charge-offs | $253M | About $225M | Key test of credit stability |
| Share repurchases | $0.7B | $0.6B–$0.7B | Capital-return consistency |
*Excludes FirstBank integration costs. Derived implied values are based on management’s percentage guidance.
In 1Q26, NII rose 6% sequentially to $3.96 billion and NIM expanded 11 bp to 2.95%. The drivers were FirstBank, lower deposit costs, commercial loan growth, and ongoing fixed-rate asset repricing.
For 2Q26, PNC has guided to approximately 3% sequential NII growth, implying roughly $4.08 billion. Management has also reiterated an expectation that NIM will exceed 3.0% in the second half of 2026.
What matters on the call:
Read-through: Delivering the guided NII growth while sustaining deposit pricing would reinforce PNC’s ability to produce a >3% NIM in 2H26. A shortfall would likely revive concerns around deposit competition and the quality of recent loan growth.
PNC expects fee income to rise 2.5% sequentially. This is credible given management’s June commentary that both NII and fee revenue were tracking toward the high end of guidance.
The most important lines:
PNC generated 13% year-over-year fee-income growth in 1Q26. A solid 2Q result would support management’s full-year noninterest-income outlook of approximately 6% growth.
At its June 9 conference appearance, PNC disclosed that it expected to participate in Visa’s B-share exchange during 2Q, producing a gain of a little more than $400 million.
However, management intends to offset most of that benefit through:
Therefore, investors should not treat the Visa gain as a clean, recurring earnings catalyst. The important questions are:
Bottom line: A GAAP EPS beat driven by Visa-related activity should receive less credit than an operating beat driven by NII, fees, expenses, and credit.
PNC completed the FirstBank acquisition on January 5, 2026. FirstBank added approximately $15 billion of loans and $22 billion of deposits at closing. PNC expected its customer conversion to occur in mid-June, placing 2Q at the center of execution risk—but also positioning the company to begin realizing more tangible operating savings in the second half.
Key points:
The quarter is likely to show elevated reported expenses because integration costs peak, so the cleaner operating metric is expense excluding integration costs. Management’s guide implies only about 2% sequential growth in that core expense base despite ongoing growth investments.
What would be constructive: stable acquired deposits, limited customer attrition, confirmation that conversion went smoothly, and unchanged confidence in the timing of cost saves.
Credit quality remains healthy by PNC’s reported metrics:
Management’s 2Q guide for approximately $225 million of charge-offs is therefore a favorable sequential signal, even as loans grow. At the June conference, management said consumer delinquencies were materially below year-ago levels and described corporate activity and credit conditions as strong.
Still, investors will focus on:
On the latter issue, management has been emphatic that PNC’s reported NDFI category is dominated by low-risk corporate receivables securitization exposure rather than direct private-credit risk. It characterized roughly 90% of NDFI loans as investment grade or equivalent and expects no losses in the portfolio. The market may continue to question that framing, so detailed disclosures and loss-performance commentary remain important.
PNC finished 1Q26 with a 10.1% CET1 ratio, down from 10.6% at year-end as a result of the FirstBank acquisition and robust loan growth. Even so, it returned $1.4 billion to shareholders in 1Q through dividends and repurchases, and has guided to $600 million–$700 million of 2Q buybacks.
Management also believes the evolving Basel framework could reduce PNC risk-weighted assets by roughly 10%, potentially creating meaningful future capital flexibility. PNC’s stated near-term preference is to retain capacity for organic loan growth, while continuing healthy dividends and repurchases.
The earnings-call capital questions should be:
The stock’s move into the print suggests investors already expect a solid quarter and improved earnings power. The setup therefore favors guidance and quality of execution over a modest numerical beat.
PNC has one of the stronger operational setups among large regional banks heading into 2Q26: guided revenue growth is robust, NII expansion appears structurally supported, loan growth is strong, fees are improving, credit remains controlled, and FirstBank is moving through its key conversion phase.
The near-term risk is not a weak quarter—it is that a strong quarter is already anticipated. To outperform expectations, PNC likely needs to show high-end core revenue, clean credit, successful FirstBank conversion, and a more constructive second-half outlook. Investors should look through Visa-related accounting and focus on whether PNC’s recurring earnings trajectory is accelerating.