| Ticker | Report or Guide | KPI | Prediction | Answer | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RF | Return | Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) | +51.0% | — | LOW |
| RF | Return | 5-day cumulative residual | -3.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) | Modest EPS/NII beat but stock trades above the $30-33 street PT cluster; DA Davson already downgraded on valuation and Wells/Evercore are bearish. Out-period math: reiterated (not raiseded) FY NII/fee guide plus paydown risk on line-utilization-driven loan growth caps upside, so post-print pop fades as estimates hold flat. | LOW |