RF Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-17

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
RF Report Diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$0.65 vs. cons $0.64 MEDIUM
RF Report Total Revenue (GAAP) MISS pred ~$1.92B vs. cons $1.945B MEDIUM
RF Report Net Charge-offs (annualized bps of avg loans) BEAT pred ~48bps vs. cons 50bps MEDIUM
RF Guide FY2026 Net Interest Income growth guide UNCHANGED guide ~2.5%-4% reaffirmed (~3% implied) vs. cons ~3.1% (FY2026) MEDIUM
RF Guide FY2026 average loan growth guide BETTER guide ~2%-3% (raised from low-single-digit) vs. cons ~1.8% (FY2026) LOW
RF Guide FY2026 Net Charge-off guide range BETTER guide ~40-48bps (narrowed toward low end of 40-50bps) vs. cons ~47bps (FY2026) LOW
RF Guide FY2026 adjusted noninterest income growth guide UNCHANGED guide ~3%-5% reaffirmed vs. cons ~4% (FY2026) MEDIUM
RF Guide Exit-2026 NIM guide UNCHANGED guide ~low-3.70s% vs. cons ~3.72% (Q4 2026 exit rate) MEDIUM
RF Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -0.6% MEDIUM
RF Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.6% (FADE) Stock has already re-rated ~17% YTD and ~13% in the last month, pricing in a clean beat-and-raise; a likely in-line-to-modest-EPS-beat with unchanged (not raised) FY NII/fee/loan guidance leaves little incremental catalyst versus CFG's actual guide-up this week, so revisions drift only modestly higher even after a headline beat. Combine that with a slight revenue/NII miss risk (echoing Q1's pattern) and valuation-skeptical sell-side views (Evercore Underperform), and initial day-1 reaction likely fades over the week as investors rotate into names that actually raised guidance rather than reaffirmed it. MEDIUM