{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.65 vs. cons $0.64",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total Revenue (GAAP)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.92B vs. cons $1.945B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net Charge-offs (annualized bps of avg loans)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~48bps vs. cons 50bps",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Net Interest Income growth guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~2.5%-4% reaffirmed (~3% implied) vs. cons ~3.1% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 average loan growth guide",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~2%-3% (raised from low-single-digit) vs. cons ~1.8% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Net Charge-off guide range",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~40-48bps (narrowed toward low end of 40-50bps) vs. cons ~47bps (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 adjusted noninterest income growth guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~3%-5% reaffirmed vs. cons ~4% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Exit-2026 NIM guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~low-3.70s% vs. cons ~3.72% (Q4 2026 exit rate)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -0.6,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.6,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock has already re-rated ~17% YTD and ~13% in the last month, pricing in a clean beat-and-raise; a likely in-line-to-modest-EPS-beat with unchanged (not raised) FY NII/fee/loan guidance leaves little incremental catalyst versus CFG's actual guide-up this week, so revisions drift only modestly higher even after a headline beat. Combine that with a slight revenue/NII miss risk (echoing Q1's pattern) and valuation-skeptical sell-side views (Evercore Underperform), and initial day-1 reaction likely fades over the week as investors rotate into names that actually raised guidance rather than reaffirmed it.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}