RF Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-17

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
RF Report Diluted EPS (GAAP) BEAT pred ~$0.61 vs. cons $0.60 MEDIUM
RF Report Net interest income IN-LINE pred ~$1.274B vs. cons $1.272B HIGH
RF Report Net interest margin (FTE) IN-LINE pred ~3.72% vs. cons 3.71% MEDIUM
RF Guide FY26 net interest income growth BETTER guide ~3.3% vs. cons 3.1% (FY2026) MEDIUM
RF Guide FY26 exit net interest margin BETTER guide ~3.74% vs. cons 3.72% (4Q2026 exit) MEDIUM
RF Guide FY26 net charge-offs / average loans UNCHANGED guide ~45 bps vs. cons 45 bps (FY2026) HIGH
RF Guide FY26 adjusted noninterest-expense growth UNCHANGED guide ~2.5% vs. cons 2.5% (FY2026) HIGH
RF Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.5% MEDIUM
RF Return 5-day cumulative residual +3.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A modest GAAP EPS beat is reinforced by ~3.3% FY2026 NII growth versus ~3.1% consensus and a ~3.74% 4Q26 exit NIM versus ~3.72% consensus; those out-period revenue assumptions support upward 2H26/2027 estimate revisions despite the ~$40M pre-tax securities loss. MEDIUM