RF Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-17

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
RF Report NII (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~$1,278M vs. cons $1,275M MEDIUM
RF Report NIM FTE (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~3.68% vs. cons 3.66% MEDIUM
RF Report Adj. Fee Income (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~$650M vs. cons $646M MEDIUM
RF Guide FY 2026 NII (FY 2026) UNCHANGED guide '2.5-4% growth' reiterated vs. cons $5,149M HIGH
RF Guide FY 2026 Adj. Fee Income (FY 2026) UNCHANGED guide '3-5% growth' reiterated vs. cons $2,644M HIGH
RF Guide FY 2026 NCOs (FY 2026) UNCHANGED guide '40-50 bps' reiterated; tone toward lower end vs. cons 0.47% MEDIUM
RF Guide Q3 2026 NII direction (Q3 2026) UNCHANGED continued expansion guided vs. implied ~$1,295M MEDIUM
RF Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.5% MEDIUM
RF Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.5% (STABILIZE) STABILIZE — initial sell-off on beat + reiterate into elevated stock; partial recovery as H2 NII math is digested and no negative surprises emerge MEDIUM