| STT |
Report |
Diluted EPS (ex-notables) |
BEAT |
pred ~$3.50 vs. cons $3.28 |
HIGH |
| STT |
Report |
Total Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$3.98B vs. cons $3.862B |
HIGH |
| STT |
Report |
Net Interest Income (NII) |
BEAT |
pred ~$830M vs. cons ~$794M |
MEDIUM |
| STT |
Guide |
FY2026 Fee revenue growth guide |
BETTER |
guide ~9-11% vs. cons ~8% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| STT |
Guide |
FY2026 NII growth guide |
BETTER |
guide ~10-12% vs. cons ~9% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| STT |
Guide |
Medium-term pretax margin target (new strategic update) |
BETTER |
guide ~33% vs. cons/implied ~31% (medium-term, ~2028 horizon) |
MEDIUM |
| STT |
Guide |
FY2026 Expense growth guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~5-6% vs. cons ~5.5% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| STT |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| STT |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+3.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Precedent from Q1 2026 (beat-and-raise triggered a multi-day ~8% follow-through rally, not a single-day pop) plus the fact that the new medium-term strategic/margin targets and AI-monetization framework represent genuinely new information not yet captured in the pre-print BK-driven sympathy rally. If Q2 beats on EPS/revenue/NII as expected and management raises FY fee/NII guides again while unveiling a higher medium-term margin target, sell-side estimate revisions should grind higher over the week, extending gains past day 1. Risk to this call: the stock has already run up ~45% YTD and +5% into the print on BK's read-through, so a chunk of the good news is pre-priced, capping magnitude versus Q1's reaction and creating some risk of a partial fade if the strategic update is seen as already anticipated or light on hard AI-P&L quantification. |
MEDIUM |