{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Core EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$5.65 vs. cons $5.08",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Pre-tax catastrophe losses",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.05bn vs. cons $1.20bn",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Underlying combined ratio",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~84.4% vs. cons 85.5%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "After-tax fixed-income net investment income",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$845m vs. cons $840m (3Q26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Full-year underwriting expense ratio",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~28.5% vs. cons 28.5% (FY26)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Homeowners renewal premium change",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~5.0% vs. cons 5.0% (2H26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 3.2,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 1.2,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A ~$0.57 EPS beat versus $5.08 consensus and a ~$150m better catastrophe outcome should drive an initial positive reaction, but a largely unchanged ~$845m versus $840m 3Q fixed-income-NII outlook and ~28.5% versus 28.5% expense-ratio outlook leave limited upward revision to out-period earnings; the initial ~3.2% residual move should fade toward ~1.2% by day five.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}