{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Core EPS (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$4.65 vs. cons $5.38",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "CAT Losses pretax (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.30B vs. cons $1.05B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Underlying Combined Ratio (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~84.5% vs. cons 85.6%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 NII after-tax (Q3 2026)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$840M vs. cons $806M",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY 2026 Expense Ratio",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~28.5% vs. cons ~28.5%",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Casualty Reserve Posture (qualitative)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "Reiterate uncertainty provision; no adverse development",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -3.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -5.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "FADE \u2014 estimate cuts on CAT miss, shorts hold, no squeeze catalyst",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}