| UAL |
Guide |
Q3 2026 adjusted EPS (guide) |
LOWER |
guide ~00 midpoint vs. cons ~$3.62 (Q3 2026) |
HIGH |
| UAL |
Guide |
FY2026 adjusted EPS |
LOWER |
guide ~$10.00 midpoint ($9-$11) vs. cons ~$10.50 (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| UAL |
Guide |
H q3/Q4 TRASM (unit-revenue) trajectory |
BETTER |
guide TRASM accel to >+12.1% vs. cons ~+10% (Q3/Q4 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| UAL |
Guide |
Fuel-cost recapture cadence |
BETTER |
guide ~80-90% Q3 & 100% Q4 vs. prior ~70-80% & 85-100% (H2 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| UAL |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| UAL |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-4.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Q2 was a clean beat ($1.99 vs $1.85) with strong TRASM +12.1% and no demand elasticity, but the out-period math is negative: Q3 guide midpoint ~$3.00 sits ~17% below the Street's ~$3.62 and the raised FY midpoint of $10.00 is still below ~$10.50 consensus, driven by a ~$575M/$1.12 EPS early-July fuel spike. Sell-side cuts Q3/FY estimates even after the beat, pressuring the stock; the 'above high end if fuel normalizes' caveat and accelerating RASM cap downside but do not offset the near-term EPS reductions, so initial weakness follows through over the week. Fuel-price volatility is the swing factor. |
LOW |