UAL Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-16

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
UAL Report Adjusted EPS (2Q26) BEAT pred ~$1.99 vs. cons ~$1.85 HIGH
UAL Report Total Operating Revenue (2Q26) BEAT pred ~$17.67B vs. cons ~$17.45B MEDIUM
UAL Report CASM-ex / Unit Cost (2Q26) MISS pred ~13.12¢ vs. cons ~12.95¢ MEDIUM
UAL Guide Q3 2026 Adjusted EPS Guidance LOWER guide ~$3.00 midpoint vs. cons ~$3.62 (Q3 2026) HIGH
UAL Guide FY2026 Adjusted EPS Guidance LOWER guide ~$10.00 midpoint vs. cons ~$10.50 (FY2026) HIGH
UAL Guide Fuel Cost Recovery Pace / Pricing Power Commentary UNKNOWN guide ~80-90% Q3 / 100% Q4 recovery vs. cons ~unclear prior assumption (Q3-Q4 2026) LOW
UAL Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.2% MEDIUM
UAL Return 5-day cumulative residual -2.5% (FADE) The EPS beat is being overshadowed by a Q3 guide that sits ~17% below prior consensus at the midpoint and an FY26 midpoint still ~5% under pre-print Street; even though management framed the fuel assumption as conservative ('would beat if fuel reverts to early-July levels'), sell-side models typically anchor to the explicit range first and only lift numbers later if oil actually cooperates. Expect consensus Q3/FY26 EPS to be cut over the following days as analysts update models to the new guide, creating a drag that outweighs the initial beat-driven pop, consistent with a 'sell the cautious guide despite the beat' pattern seen elsewhere in the sector this cycle (though Delta's read-through and any near-term de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz could soften the fade). MEDIUM