UAL Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-16

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
UAL Report Q2 adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$1.99 vs. cons $1.85 HIGH
UAL Report Q2 operating revenue IN-LINE pred ~$17.67B vs. cons $17.62B HIGH
UAL Report Q2 CASM-ex IN-LINE pred ~13.12¢ vs. cons 13.01¢ MEDIUM
UAL Guide Q3 adjusted EPS LOWER guide ~$3.00 vs. cons $3.62 (Q3 2026) HIGH
UAL Guide Full-year adjusted EPS LOWER guide ~$10.00 vs. cons $10.50 (FY2026) HIGH
UAL Guide TRASM growth BETTER guide ~12.5% vs. cons 11.0% (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
UAL Guide Implied Q4 adjusted EPS BETTER guide ~$3.82 vs. cons $3.70 (Q4 2026) MEDIUM
UAL Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.0% MEDIUM
UAL Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.5% (FADE) The Q3 midpoint of $3.00 vs. $3.62 consensus and FY2026 midpoint of $10.00 vs. $10.50 should trigger near-term estimate cuts despite the Q2 beat. However, the implied Q4 EPS of about $3.82 vs. $3.70 consensus and TRASM guidance near 12.5% vs. 11.0% support a partial recovery after the initial selloff. MEDIUM