| UNH |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$4.92 vs. cons $4.84 |
MEDIUM |
| UNH |
Report |
Consolidated Medical Care Ratio (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~88.0% MCR vs. cons 88.5% (lower = better) |
MEDIUM |
| UNH |
Report |
Total Revenue (Q2 2026) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$111.0B vs. cons $110.7B |
HIGH |
| UNH |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EPS guide |
BETTER |
guide ~$18.50 vs. cons ~$18.40 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| UNH |
Guide |
FY2026 full-year MCR guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~87.5% vs. cons ~87.6% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| UNH |
Guide |
MA medical cost trend vs pricing commentary |
BETTER |
guide trend ~8% at/below repriced ~10% pricing vs. cons ~10% (FY2026) |
LOW |
| UNH |
Guide |
Optum Health FY margin trajectory |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~5% 2026 toward 6-8% LT vs. cons ~5% (FY2026/2027) |
LOW |
| UNH |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+3.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| UNH |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+2.0% (FADE) |
A guidance-implied H1 run-rate above the $4.84 Street bar plus a modest into-print pullback (from ~$431 to $418.56) tilt day-1 positive on a clean EPS/MCR beat and likely reaffirm-or-small-raise. But out-period math caps follow-through: management's own framework loads H2 MCR >200bps above the midpoint and front-loads earnings (~2/3 in H1), so a Q2 beat mechanically implies a heavier, lower-margin back half — analysts trim H2 even as they nudge H1, keeping FY revisions muted. Add unquantified overhangs (DOJ/RADV, 2027 MA margin, Medicaid negative margins) and a stock up ~75% off the trough, and the initial pop partially gives back over the week. |
LOW |