| UNH |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$4.92 vs. cons $4.84 |
MEDIUM |
| UNH |
Report |
Medical Care Ratio (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~88.2% vs. cons 88.5% (lower ratio = favorable, ~30bps better) |
MEDIUM |
| UNH |
Report |
Revenue (Q2 2026) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$110.3B vs. cons $110.7B |
MEDIUM |
| UNH |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EPS guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$18.35 vs. cons $18.32 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| UNH |
Guide |
FY2026 Medical Care Ratio guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~88.5% vs. cons 88.6% (FY2026) |
LOW |
| UNH |
Guide |
Optum Health FY2026 operating margin trajectory |
BETTER |
guide ~4.5% vs. cons 4.0% (FY2026, en route to 6-8% long-term target) |
LOW |
| UNH |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| UNH |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-2.5% (FADE) |
Stock is up ~30% YTD and ~13% off June lows heading into print with a ~6% implied move and analyst targets already lifted to $460-480, meaning a modest EPS beat/in-line MCR is largely priced in ('sell-the-news' risk). Q1's Optum Health beat was flagged by CFO DeVeydt as partly favorable prior-year reserve development, not a clean run-rate; if Q2 similarly leans on non-recurring items or reiterates (rather than raises) the FY18.25+ floor, sell-side models will likely trim H2/out-year Optum Insight and Optum Rx ramp assumptions (currently ~60% H2-weighted) even after a headline beat, since the 2/3 H1 / 1/3 H2 cadence math leaves little room for upside surprise in the back half. Continued DOJ overhang and Medicaid margin drag reinforce a fade rather than follow-through. |
MEDIUM |