UNH Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-16

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
UNH Report Operating EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$5.10 vs. cons $4.84 MEDIUM
UNH Report Medical Care Ratio (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~87.8% vs. cons 88.45% MEDIUM
UNH Report OptumHealth Operating Income (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$650M vs. cons $532M MEDIUM
UNH Guide Adj. EPS (FY2026) BETTER guide >$18.75 vs. cons $18.51 MEDIUM
UNH Guide MCR (FY2026) UNCHANGED guide 88.8% +/-50bps maintained vs. cons 88.49% HIGH
UNH Guide Buyback / Capital (qualitative) BETTER Confirm >=2B H1 complete; H2 continuation signaled HIGH
UNH Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +4.0% MEDIUM
UNH Return 5-day cumulative residual +6.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) FOLLOW-THROUGH — H2 estimate revisions chase the implied FY lift; sell-side models lift Q3/Q4 on the guide raise MEDIUM