| USB |
Report |
EPS (diluted) |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.30 vs. cons $1.28 |
MEDIUM |
| USB |
Report |
Net interest income (FTE) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$4.37B vs. cons $4.34B |
MEDIUM |
| USB |
Report |
Noninterest (fee) income |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$3.26B vs. cons $3.28B |
LOW |
| USB |
Guide |
FY2026 total revenue growth |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~+5-6% vs. cons ~+5% (FY26), bias to high end |
MEDIUM |
| USB |
Guide |
FY2026 positive operating leverage |
BETTER |
guide ~250 bps vs. cons ~200 bps (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| USB |
Guide |
Q3'26 NII (FTE, w/ Amazon card conversion + loan growth) |
BETTER |
guide ~$4.45B vs. cons ~$4.42B (Q3'26) |
LOW |
| USB |
Guide |
Buyback pace (glide-up toward 70-75% payout) |
BETTER |
guide ~$250-300M/qtr vs. cons ~$200M/qtr (Q3'26) |
MEDIUM |
| USB |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| USB |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.5% (FADE) |
Likely beat-and-reiterate: headline EPS beat on NII/expense discipline plus strong capital-markets read-through drives an initial pop of ~1.5%. But the noninterest-income consensus (~$3.28B, +12% YoY) sits well above management's +6-7% guide, so the fee bar is high and a clean beat there is uncertain. Management historically reaffirms the FY revenue/leverage guide rather than raising it, so out-period estimates get little upward revision even after the beat (implicit conservatism), and with the stock +17% YTD near multi-year highs, elevated expectations cause part of the day-1 gain to fade over the following sessions. |
MEDIUM |