USB Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-16

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
USB Report Adjusted diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$1.30 vs. cons $1.28 MEDIUM
USB Report Total net revenue IN-LINE pred ~$7.67B vs. cons $7.61B MEDIUM
USB Report Taxable-equivalent net interest income IN-LINE pred ~$4.36B vs. cons $4.34B HIGH
USB Guide Total net revenue growth UNCHANGED guide ~7.0% vs. cons 7.0% (FY2026) MEDIUM
USB Guide Positive operating leverage LOWER guide ~200 bps vs. cons 220 bps (FY2026) MEDIUM
USB Guide Taxable-equivalent net interest income BETTER guide ~$4.44B vs. cons $4.42B (Q3 2026) LOW
USB Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +0.8% LOW
USB Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.3% (FADE) The Q2 EPS beat is largely pre-signaled and only ~2 cents versus consensus; FY2026 operating-leverage guidance of ~200 bps versus consensus 220 bps limits out-period estimate increases, causing the day-1 residual of +0.8% to fade toward a +0.3% five-day residual. LOW