USB Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-16

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
USB Report Diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$1.24 vs. cons $1.21 MEDIUM
USB Report Taxable-equivalent net interest income BEAT pred ~$4.37B vs. cons $4.32B MEDIUM
USB Report Fee revenue BEAT pred ~$3.13B vs. cons $3.09B MEDIUM
USB Guide FY2026 total revenue growth UNCHANGED guide ~5.0% vs. cons 5.0% (FY2026) HIGH
USB Guide FY2026 positive operating leverage UNCHANGED guide ~250 bp vs. cons 250 bp (FY2026) MEDIUM
USB Guide 3Q26 Amazon small-business-card revenue contribution UNCHANGED guide ~$80M vs. cons $80M (3Q2026) MEDIUM
USB Guide BTIG incremental quarterly fee revenue at scale UNCHANGED guide ~$200M vs. cons $200M (2H2026) LOW
USB Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.5% MEDIUM
USB Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.5% (FADE) Day-1 ~+1.5% vs. beta-adjusted baseline 0.0%; 5-day ~+0.5% vs. day-1 +1.5% as a modest EPS/NII/fee beat is largely validated by unchanged ~5.0% FY2026 revenue-growth guidance versus 5.0% consensus, limiting out-period estimate revisions. MEDIUM