USB Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-16

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
USB Report Fee Revenue (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$3,290M vs. cons $3,231M MEDIUM
USB Report NII FTE (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~$4,370M vs. cons $4,342M MEDIUM
USB Report EPS Operating (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$1.31 vs. cons $1.279 MEDIUM
USB Guide FY 2026 EPS incl. BTIG (FY 2026) BETTER guide ~$5.22 vs. cons $5.139 MEDIUM
USB Guide Q3 2026 NII (Q3 2026) BETTER guide ~$4,630M vs. cons ~$4,470M MEDIUM
USB Guide FY 2026 Operating Leverage (FY 2026) BETTER guide >=300 bps vs. cons ~200 bps MEDIUM
USB Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.5% MEDIUM
USB Return 5-day cumulative residual +3.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) FOLLOW-THROUGH — sell-side revises FY EPS estimates upward as BTIG incorporated; implied H2 NII/fee math coherent and above Q2 run-rate; no implicit cut in out-periods MEDIUM