Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) — 2Q26 Earnings Preview

Event: Tuesday, July 14, 2026, before market open
Call: 10:00 a.m. ET
Bottom line: This report is less about a one-quarter EPS beat and more about whether Wells Fargo is converting its post–asset-cap growth opportunity into durable revenue growth, controlled expenses, and improving returns. The key debate is whether accelerating loan/deposit growth and fee momentum can offset near-term net interest margin (NIM) compression and a potentially less benign credit backdrop.

What the market expects

Metric	Street expectation	2Q25 actual	1Q26 actual
EPS	$1.71	$1.60	$1.60
Total revenue	$21.77B	$20.82B	$21.45B
Net interest income	$12.36B	$11.71B	$12.10B
Noninterest income	$9.38B	$9.11B	$9.35B

Consensus figures reflect estimates reported July 10 and may have moved into the print.

At face value, consensus calls for modest EPS growth and a meaningful step-up in revenue versus the year-ago period. The quality of that revenue—core NII, fees, Markets, and investment banking—will matter more than the headline.

The central investment question: can growth overcome margin pressure?

Wells exited 1Q with genuine commercial momentum:

• Average loans rose 10% year over year to $996B, and period-end loans exceeded $1T for the first time since early 2020.
• Deposits increased 6% year over year to $1.415T.
• Management retained 2026 NII guidance of $50B, plus or minus, despite expecting additional NIM compression in 2Q.
• The company expects NII to build through the year as loan growth, fixed-rate asset repricing, and broader client relationships increasingly contribute.

The tension is that much of the early post-cap balance-sheet expansion has been in lower-margin Markets-related assets and higher-cost interest-bearing deposits, particularly in commercial businesses. That dynamic reduced 1Q taxable-equivalent NIM to 2.47%, from 2.60% in 4Q25 and 2.67% a year earlier.

Why 2Q matters for the full-year guide

With 1Q NII of $12.10B, Wells needs roughly $37.9B over the final three quarters—about $12.6B per quarter on average—to reach the midpoint of its $50B full-year target. The 2Q consensus NII estimate of $12.36B is therefore not alarming on its own, but it reinforces that investors will be focused on the second-half exit rate and management’s confidence in the guide.

What investors want to hear: NII is tracking to plan; margin pressure is moderating after 2Q; commercial deposit growth is bringing broader, higher-return relationships; and loan growth remains disciplined rather than price-led.

Four issues that will determine the reaction

1. NII, deposit mix, and the 2026 outlook

This is the most important financial issue in the quarter.

Management said in April that further NIM compression was likely in 2Q, driven by Markets balance-sheet growth, a greater mix of interest-bearing deposits, and the lagged impact of prior rate cuts. As a result, an incremental NIM decline should not be a surprise. The question is whether it is contained and temporary, or whether it signals a more difficult path to the $50B NII target.

Watch for:

• Any change to the $50B ± NII outlook.
• Commentary on the mix of commercial deposits versus consumer checking growth.
• Whether higher-for-longer rates are a net positive to NII, as management suggested in 1Q.
• Evidence that low-return balance-sheet deployment is producing fee, trading, payments, or investment-banking cross-sell.

2. Expense discipline and positive operating leverage

Wells retained its full-year noninterest expense outlook of approximately $55.7B after 1Q. First-quarter expenses were elevated at $14.33B, partly due to roughly $700M of seasonal payroll, stock-compensation, and retirement-plan costs.

The investment case relies on management simultaneously:

1. Investing in advertising, technology, AI, bankers, and product capabilities; and
2. Generating efficiency savings elsewhere.

A better seasonal expense run-rate in 2Q would help validate that equation. Conversely, higher costs without a corresponding acceleration in revenue would challenge the path to the company’s 17%–18% ROTCE objective. Wells produced 14.5% ROTCE in 1Q26.

3. Fee-income durability: CIB and Wealth are key swing factors

Wells’ 1Q results were helped by broad fee growth:

• Corporate & Investment Banking revenue rose 4% year over year, led by 11% Banking growth and 19% Markets growth.
• Wealth & Investment Management revenue increased 14%, helped by higher asset-based fees and lower deposit pricing.
• Management entered 2Q with a strong investment-banking pipeline, including M&A and equity-capital-markets activity.

The potential complication: Wealth advisory fees are generally priced at the start of the quarter, and management noted that market valuations on April 1 were below January 1, though still above year-ago levels. That creates a potential sequential headwind for 2Q wealth fees.

For CIB, investors should separate a volatile trading quarter from the underlying franchise trend. The more constructive signal would be continued investment-banking share gains, strong pipeline commentary, and evidence that Markets financing relationships are yielding ancillary revenues.

4. Credit: still healthy, but the outlook is becoming more important

Credit remained sound in 1Q:

• Net charge-offs were 45 bps of average loans, flat year over year.
• Nonperforming assets were 0.86% of loans, stable sequentially.
• The allowance for credit losses was 1.41% of loans.
• Consumer charge-offs improved year over year, and commercial credit remained broadly stable.

However, management flagged that higher energy prices could pressure lower-income consumers and eventually affect broader spending and credit trends. It also maintained a meaningful downside weighting in its reserve scenarios. That makes the provision line and qualitative commentary disproportionately important in 2Q.

Key indicators:

• Credit-card and auto delinquencies/charge-offs.
• Commercial and industrial credit migration.
• Commercial real-estate losses and nonaccruals.
• Any incremental reserve build tied to macro conditions, energy, consumer stress, or nonbank financial institution exposure.

The company provided unusually detailed 1Q disclosure on its roughly $210B financials-ex-bank/NBFI portfolio, emphasizing collateral, diversification, advance rates, and structural protections. Investors will want confirmation that the 1Q fraud-related loss was isolated and that no broader deterioration has emerged.

Capital return and regulatory optionality

Capital is a supporting upside factor rather than the near-term earnings driver.

Wells ended 1Q with a 10.3% CET1 ratio, within its 10.0%–10.5% operating target, and repurchased $4.0B of common stock during the quarter. Management also estimated that the proposed capital-rule changes could reduce risk-weighted assets by approximately 7%, although it has not committed to a lower future CET1 target before the rules are finalized.

The practical read-through:

• Continued sizable repurchases should remain plausible if earnings and capital requirements cooperate.
• Final capital rules could create incremental flexibility for buybacks or balance-sheet growth.
• Investors should not assume that benefit is immediately deployable; management has emphasized that final rules, implementation timing, and the desired capital buffer still need to be determined.

What would make this a “good” print?

A favorable report would likely include:

1. EPS and revenue above consensus, with core—not merely tax or one-time—drivers.
2. NII in line or better, paired with a reaffirmed $50B full-year outlook.
3. A credible message that 2Q is the low point for NIM pressure or that pressure moderates in the second half.
4. Expenses consistent with the $55.7B annual target.
5. Continued broad loan/deposit growth without evidence of aggressive pricing.
6. Healthy credit trends and no material reserve surprise.
7. Constructive CIB pipeline and Wealth net-flow commentary.
8. Ongoing meaningful repurchases and a steady capital outlook.

What could disappoint?

The principal downside risks are:

• A cut or a more cautious tone on full-year NII guidance.
• Faster-than-expected margin erosion from deposit costs and low-yielding balance-sheet growth.
• Expense creep from technology, advertising, compensation, or control investments.
• A weaker Wealth-fee quarter due to market-level timing.
• Credit normalization in cards, autos, C&I, CRE, or NBFI exposures.
• CIB revenue that fails to sustain 1Q’s strong momentum.
• A less confident timetable for reaching the 17%–18% ROTCE target.

Positioning and setup

WFC closed at $87.69 on July 13, up about 7.3% since its April 14 first-quarter earnings report, versus roughly 8.7% for the KBE bank ETF over the same period. That relative underperformance suggests the stock is not priced for an unambiguously strong growth-and-returns inflection, but it also means a simple EPS beat may not be enough: investors will want proof that the post-asset-cap strategy is improving the medium-term earnings trajectory.

Bottom line

Wells Fargo’s 2Q report is a validation quarter for the post-asset-cap growth story. The company has clear momentum in loans, deposits, cards, commercial banking, wealth, and CIB. But the market needs reassurance that the early balance-sheet expansion is not sacrificing NIM, operating efficiency, or credit discipline.

The highest-value data points on July 14 will be: full-year NII guidance, the trajectory of NIM after 2Q, expense discipline, credit/reserve commentary, and evidence that commercial-client onboarding is translating into higher-return fee businesses.

Sources reviewed: Wells Fargo 1Q26 earnings release and conference-call transcript; Wells Fargo 2Q25 earnings release; recent WFC and financial-sector news/consensus data; historical WFC and KBE price data.