Wells Fargo & Company (WFC)
Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
Ticker | WFC | Upcoming Earnings | Q2 2026 — July 11, 2026 | Prepared | July 13, 2026 |
1. Earnings Preview
Key Takeaway: The setup into Q2 is constructive — management pre-guided mid-teens markets and IB revenue growth and a step-up in NII, making the bar well-telegraphed; the key swing factor is whether NIM compression stays contained at the guided 3–4 bps and whether fee momentum in wealth and IB surprises to the upside.
Wells Fargo heads into Q2 2026 earnings with an unusually well-telegraphed setup: management explicitly guided mid-teens year-over-year growth in both total markets revenues and investment banking at the May Bernstein conference, low double-digit growth in wealth, and a sequential step-up in NII — all of which sets a clear bar for the Street. Consensus NII ex-markets of ~$11.8B and operating EPS of ~$1.73 represent modest upward revisions from the post-Q1 baseline, tracking management’s directional guidance. The stock has lagged KRE (+8.3%) and SPY (+8.7%) since Q1 earnings, gaining only +6.7%, suggesting the market has not fully priced in the growth narrative — which creates asymmetric upside if fee lines and NIM compression come in better than feared. The wildcard is NIM: CFO Santomassimo guided 3–4 bps of additional compression in Q2 from faster-than-expected interest-bearing deposit growth, and any deviation — particularly if compression is shallower — could be the single biggest positive surprise. Credit quality remains a non-issue with NCO ratios stable and consumer delinquencies flat-to-down, removing a key bear concern.
Dimension | Assessment |
Bar | Consensus operating EPS of ~$1.73 is a moderate bar — above Q1’s $1.57 actuals but below Q3/Q4 2025 levels; management’s explicit revenue directional guidance makes this a well-anchored setup. |
Guidance / Tone | Management tone has been notably confident at both the Bernstein (May 27) and Morgan Stanley (June 9) conferences — CEO Scharf called the economy “extremely, extremely strong” and CFO Santomassimo noted consumer debit/credit card spend up 9% YoY in May. |
Estimate Trajectory | Estimates have drifted modestly higher since Q1 earnings, tracking management’s directional guidance; NII ex-markets consensus of ~$11.8B is slightly above Q1’s $11.6B actuals, consistent with the guided sequential step-up. |
Stock Setup | WFC has underperformed KRE and SPY since Q1 earnings (+6.7% vs +8.3% and +8.7%), suggesting the market has not fully re-rated the stock despite the growth narrative — creating potential for a catch-up trade on a clean print. |
Wildcard | NIM trajectory — guided 3–4 bps of additional compression in Q2; any upside surprise (shallower compression) driven by slower repo growth or better deposit mix would be the single biggest positive catalyst. |
2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations
Key Takeaway: Consensus sets a moderate bar across all key metrics; NII ex-markets and fee revenue are the two biggest swing factors, while credit quality is expected to remain benign.
Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Q2 2026)
KPI | Q1 2026 Actual | Q2 2025 Actual | Q2 2026 Consensus | YoY Change | Guidance | Cons. vs. Guidance |
Operating EPS ($) | $1.57 | $1.54 | $1.73 | +12.3% | No specific Q2 guide | N/A |
Net Interest Income ($B) | $12.10B | $11.71B | $12.30B | +5.1% | ~$50B FY (step-up guided) | Tracking |
NII ex-Markets ($B) | $11.62B | $11.60B | $11.79B | +1.6% | ~$48B FY | Tracking |
Total Noninterest Income ($B) | $9.35B | $9.11B | $9.53B | +4.6% | Mid-teens mkts/IB growth | Tracking |
Total Revenue ($B) | $21.45B | $20.82B | $21.81B | +4.8% | Sequential step-up | Tracking |
Total Noninterest Expense ($B) | $14.33B | $13.38B | $13.77B | +2.9% | ~$55.7B FY | On track |
Provision for Credit Losses ($B) | $1.14B | $1.01B | $1.19B | +18.0% | No specific guide | N/A |
Net Interest Margin FTE (%) | 2.47% | 2.68% | 2.44% | -24 bps | 3–4 bps Q2 compression | Tracking |
Net Charge-Off Ratio (%) | 0.44% | 0.44% | 0.43% | -1 bp | Stable | On track |
ROTCE (%) | 14.5% | 15.2% | 15.4% | +20 bps | 17–18% medium-term | Tracking |
Source: All consensus figures from Visible Alpha. Q1 2026 and Q2 2025 actuals from Visible Alpha. NII ex-Markets consensus ~$11.79B per VA; Total NII consensus ~$12.30B includes ~$515M markets NII.
Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters)
Operating EPS
Quarter | Reported | Consensus | Surprise % | Result |
Q2 2024 | $1.36 | $1.29 | +5.4% | Beat |
Q3 2024 | $1.52 | $1.28 | +18.8% | Beat |
Q4 2024 | $1.42 | $1.38 | +2.9% | Beat |
Q1 2025 | $1.27 | $1.27 | 0.0% | In-line |
Q2 2025 | $1.54 | $1.41 | +9.2% | Beat |
Q3 2025 | $1.73 | $1.58 | +9.5% | Beat |
Q4 2025 | $1.74 | $1.70 | +2.4% | Beat |
Q1 2026 | $1.57 | $1.61 | -2.5% | Miss |
Net Interest Income
Quarter | Reported ($B) | Consensus ($B) | Surprise % | Result |
Q2 2024 | $11.92B | $12.09B | -1.4% | Miss |
Q3 2024 | $11.69B | $11.85B | -1.4% | Miss |
Q4 2024 | $11.84B | $11.70B | +1.2% | Beat |
Q1 2025 | $11.50B | $11.73B | -2.0% | Miss |
Q2 2025 | $11.71B | $11.84B | -1.1% | Miss |
Q3 2025 | $11.95B | $12.03B | -0.7% | Miss |
Q4 2025 | $12.33B | $12.40B | -0.6% | Miss |
Q1 2026 | $12.10B | $12.25B | -1.2% | Miss |
Pattern: WFC has consistently missed NII consensus in 7 of the last 8 quarters, largely driven by markets balance sheet growth compressing reported NIM. Operating EPS has beaten in 6 of 8 quarters, with the Q1 2026 miss being the first EPS miss in the series. The NII miss pattern is structural and well-understood by the Street — it does not represent a negative surprise risk for Q2.
3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution
Key Takeaway: Management has maintained all full-year guidance unchanged since Q1 earnings; the only incremental color has been explicit Q2 directional revenue guidance provided at conferences — a positive signal of management confidence and the first time WFC has provided forward-quarter color outside of an earnings call.
Metric | Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings, Apr 14) | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
Full-Year NII | ~$50B (+/-) | Unchanged | ~$49.8B | Reaffirmed at Bernstein (May 27) and MS Conf. (June 9); rates now flat for year is modest positive for banking book |
NII ex-Markets | ~$48B | Unchanged | ~$47.8B | Loan growth tracking better than modeled; modest positive |
Noninterest Expense | ~$55.7B | Unchanged | ~$55.7B | Reaffirmed at MS Conf. (June 9); 20+ consecutive quarters of headcount reduction |
Q2 Markets Revenue | Not guided at earnings | Mid-teens YoY growth | N/A | First explicit forward-quarter revenue color; provided at Bernstein (May 27) and reaffirmed at MS Conf. (June 9) |
Q2 IB Revenue | Not guided at earnings | Mid-teens YoY growth | N/A | Provided at Bernstein (May 27) |
Q2 Wealth Revenue | Not guided at earnings | Low double-digit YoY growth | N/A | Provided at Bernstein (May 27) |
Q2 NIM | Not guided at earnings | 3–4 bps compression vs Q1 | ~2.44% | Provided at MS Conf. (June 9); driven by interest-bearing deposit mix shift |
ROTCE (Medium-Term) | 17–18% | Unchanged | ~15.4% Q2E | CEO: “not the destination” — waypoint on path to higher returns |
Loan Growth | Mid-single digits FY | Tracking better | N/A | CFO: “potentially a little bit better than what we had modeled” |
4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker
Key Takeaway: Estimates have drifted modestly higher since Q1 earnings across all key metrics, tracking management’s directional guidance; the gap between current consensus and guidance is narrow, suggesting limited room for a guidance-driven surprise.
KPI / Period | Est. ~5 Days Post Q1 Earnings (Apr 21) | Current Consensus (Jul 13) | Estimate Delta (%) | Initial Guidance (Q1 Call) | Current Guidance | Guidance Delta | Cons. vs. Guidance |
Op. EPS — Q2 2026 | ~$1.68 | $1.73 | +3.0% | No specific guide | No change | N/A | N/A |
Op. EPS — FY 2026 | ~$6.85 | $7.01 | +2.3% | No specific guide | No change | N/A | N/A |
NII — Q2 2026 | ~$12.15B | $12.30B | +1.2% | ~$50B FY (step-up) | Unchanged | Flat | Tracking |
NII — FY 2026 | ~$49.5B | $49.8B | +0.6% | ~$50B | Unchanged | Flat | ~0.4% below midpoint |
Revenue — Q2 2026 | ~$21.5B | $21.81B | +1.4% | Sequential step-up | Unchanged | Flat | Tracking |
Revenue — FY 2026 | ~$87.0B | $87.7B | +0.8% | No specific FY guide | No change | N/A | N/A |
Note: Post-Q1 earnings baseline estimates (~Apr 21) are approximated from the Visible Alpha data trend; current consensus from Visible Alpha as of July 13, 2026. Estimates have drifted modestly higher across all metrics, consistent with management’s constructive conference commentary.
5. Stock Performance
Key Takeaway: WFC has underperformed both KRE (+8.3%) and SPY (+8.7%) since Q1 earnings, gaining only +6.7% — the lag appears driven by multiple compression rather than earnings deterioration; the discount to peers creates a potential catch-up trade on a clean Q2 print.
WFC vs. KRE vs. SPY — Indexed Performance Since Q1 2026 Earnings (Apr 14, 2026 = 100). Source: Stock Price Data.
WFC opened Q1 earnings at $81.70 and closed at $87.18 on July 10, 2026 — a gain of +6.7% vs KRE’s +8.3% and SPY’s +8.7%. The stock experienced a notable drawdown in mid-May (trough ~$73.42 on May 15, -10.1% from earnings date), coinciding with broader market volatility and sector rotation. The recovery from mid-May lows has been strong (+18.8% from trough to July 10), driven by the Bernstein and Morgan Stanley conference appearances where management provided explicit Q2 revenue guidance and reaffirmed the $50B NII target. The DFAST stress test results (June 24) were a positive catalyst, with WFC’s estimated RWA declining ~7% under the proposed Basel III endgame rules — implying potential for increased capital return capacity. The stock’s underperformance vs SPY reflects multiple compression rather than earnings deterioration, as the transformation story has not yet been fully re-rated by the market. Sector ETF used: KRE (SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF) — appropriate given WFC’s U.S.-focused retail and commercial banking franchise.
6. Material News & Developments
Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is management’s explicit Q2 revenue directional guidance at conferences — the first time WFC has provided forward-quarter color outside of an earnings call, signaling elevated management confidence.
- June 24, 2026 — DFAST Stress Test Results: WFC disclosed 2026 Dodd-Frank stress test results; estimated RWA reduction of ~7% under proposed Basel III endgame rules implies potential CET1 ratio uplift and increased capital deployment capacity (buybacks/dividends). Implication: Positive for capital return story; management may revisit 10–10.5% CET1 target once rules finalized.
- June 24, 2026 — JPM Leadership Succession: JPMorgan elevated Petno and Rohrbaugh to Co-Presidents, granting $100M in performance-based equity — signals succession planning at the largest U.S. bank peer. Implication: Neutral for WFC directly, but highlights industry-wide leadership transition dynamics.
- June 24, 2026 — MS Dividend Hike & Buyback: Morgan Stanley hiked dividend 15% and unveiled a $20B buyback following DFAST. Implication: Sets a positive precedent for capital return announcements across large banks post-stress test; WFC bought back ~$4B in Q1 and has capacity to accelerate.
- June 9, 2026 — Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference: CFO Santomassimo provided explicit Q2 guidance — mid-teens markets revenue growth YoY, 3–4 bps NIM compression, loan growth tracking better than modeled, and noninterest-bearing deposits more stable than assumed. Implication: Unusually specific forward guidance reduces uncertainty and sets a clear bar.
- May 27, 2026 — Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference: CEO Scharf provided first-ever explicit forward-quarter revenue guidance — mid-teens growth in markets and IB, low double-digit growth in wealth. Consumer spending described as “even stronger than a couple of months ago.” Implication: Highly constructive signal; management confidence at its highest since asset cap removal.
- May 7, 2026 — Citi Investor Day: Citi outlined its transformation roadmap with NII ex-Markets guided up 5–6% for FY2026 and strong capital markets momentum. Implication: Positive read-through for industry NII trajectory and IB fee environment.
- April 14, 2026 — Q1 2026 Earnings: WFC reported Q1 with operating EPS of $1.57 (slight miss vs $1.61 consensus) and NII of $12.10B (miss vs $12.25B). Loan balances crossed $1 trillion for first time since Q1 2020. Final (14th) consent order closed in March 2026. Management maintained all FY guidance. Implication: Headline miss masked strong underlying momentum; regulatory remediation now complete.
7. Insider Transaction Activity
Key Takeaway: No open-market buys or discretionary sells from senior executives since Q1 earnings — all activity consists of routine director compensation awards and RSU vesting/tax withholding, which carry no informational signal.
Name | Title | Transaction Type | Value | Date (Effective) | Note |
Rosenberg, Jason M. | SEVP & Head of Public Affairs | RSU Vesting (M) / Tax Withholding (F) | ~17,218 shares vested / ~8,079 shares withheld | June 15, 2026 | Routine RSU vesting with mandatory tax withholding; not a discretionary sale |
CRAVER, Theodore F. Jr. | Director | Gift Transfer (G) | 89 shares | May 14, 2026 | Transfer to revocable trust; no economic signal |
Multiple Directors (9) | Directors | Annual Compensation Award (A) | 3,436 Common Stock Units each | April 28, 2026 | Routine annual director equity compensation; no signal |
Multiple Directors (3) | Directors | Phantom Stock Units (A) | 422–1,076 units each | July 1, 2026 | Routine director deferred compensation; no signal |
There are no open-market purchases (Form 4 code P) or discretionary sales (Form 4 code S) from any named executive officer or director in the period since Q1 earnings. All transactions are routine compensation-related (annual awards, RSU vesting, tax withholding, gift transfers). The absence of insider buying is not a negative signal given the stock’s +6.7% appreciation since earnings; the absence of discretionary selling is a mild positive. No 10b5-1 plan initiations were filed in the period.
8. Peer Commentaries — Read-Through (Last 60 Days)
Key Takeaway: Peer Q1 2026 earnings calls and conference appearances paint a uniformly constructive picture for WFC’s Q2 setup — strong markets and IB revenues, resilient consumer credit, and stable-to-improving NII trajectories are all positive read-throughs.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) — Q1 2026 Earnings (April 14, 2026)
Read-Through Relevance | HIGH — JPM is the most direct large-bank comp and reports on the same day as WFC |
Theme | JPM Commentary | WFC Read-Through |
NII Outlook | NII ex-Markets guided ~$95B for FY2026 (unchanged); total NII now ~$103B. Rates being flat for the year (vs. 2–3 cuts assumed) had only ~20 bps impact on full-year NII average — a modest positive. | Supports WFC’s $50B NII guidance being achievable even with fewer rate cuts. |
Investment Banking | IB fees up 28% YoY, driven by M&A and equity underwriting. Pipeline described as “healthy.” | Positive for WFC’s guided mid-teens IB growth in Q2. |
Consumer Credit | Consumer spending “above last year’s pace” across all metrics (early roll rates, delinquencies, cash buffers). | Supports WFC’s benign credit quality outlook. |
Markets Revenue | Fixed income up 21%, equities up 17%. Balance sheet growth primarily in low-density secured financing (repo). | Validates WFC’s strategy of growing markets balance sheet via financing; confirms industry-wide trend. |
Deposit Trends | Average deposits up 2% YoY; consumer deposit growth expected “low to mid-single digits.” Rotation from noninterest-bearing to interest-bearing slowing. | Positive for WFC’s deposit mix normalization thesis. |
Basel III / Capital | JPM flagged concern that its CET1 would increase ~4% under proposed rules (vs. Fed’s estimate of -5% for large banks) due to G-SIB surcharge methodology. | WFC’s estimated ~7% RWA reduction is more favorable than JPM’s outcome — a relative positive for WFC’s capital position. |
Bank of America (BAC) — Q1 2026 Earnings (April 15, 2026)
Read-Through Relevance | HIGH — BAC is the closest structural comp to WFC (consumer + commercial + markets) |
Theme | BAC Commentary | WFC Read-Through |
NII Outlook | NII FTE up 9% YoY to $15.9B; raised FY2026 NII growth guidance to +6–8% vs 2025 (from prior guidance). Rates being flat for the year is a “slight beneficiary.” | Strongest NII read-through in the peer group; validates WFC’s NII step-up thesis for Q2. |
Loan Growth | Average loans up ~9% YoY; C&I loan growth returned in Q1 with ~$5–10B from revolver draws. | Positive for WFC’s commercial loan growth outlook. |
Consumer Spending | Consumer spending up 5% YoY (consistent with 2025 pace); debit/credit card spend up 6% YoY. Record 38.5M consumer checking accounts. | Confirms consumer resilience; supports WFC’s card and consumer lending growth. |
Credit Quality | Net charge-offs down YoY; provision of $1.3B (down from $1.5B). First quarter in 3+ years with no new nonperforming asset inflows in office CRE. | Positive for WFC’s credit quality outlook; CRE office stress appears to be peaking. |
Markets Revenue | Sales and trading up 12% YoY — 15th consecutive quarter of YoY growth. Equities best quarter ever (+30% YoY). | Confirms strong markets environment heading into Q2. |
Deposit Costs | Deposit rate paid declined 16 bps to 1.47%; noninterest-bearing deposits “picked up a little” in Q1. | Positive for WFC’s deposit cost trajectory; NIB stabilization is a key WFC thesis. |
Citigroup (C) — Q1 2026 Earnings (April 14, 2026)
Read-Through Relevance | MEDIUM — Citi is more internationally focused but provides useful IB and markets color |
Theme | Citi Commentary | WFC Read-Through |
Markets & IB | Markets crossed $7B in revenues for first time in a decade (+19% YoY). M&A up 19% (strongest Q1 in a decade); ECM up 64%. | Confirms exceptional IB and markets environment; supports WFC’s mid-teens guided growth. |
NII Trajectory | NII ex-Markets up 7% YoY; FY guidance of +5–6% maintained. Loan growth tracking at ~5% (mid-single digits). | Industry NII trajectory broadly constructive. |
Consumer Credit | U.S. card NCL rate guided 4–4.5% for FY2026 (better than prior expectations). Delinquencies declining. | Consumer credit improving across the industry. |
Reserve Building | ACL build of $597M with increased downside scenario weighting — reflects macro uncertainty. Reserves incorporate 8-quarter weighted average unemployment of ~5.4%. | Peers are building reserves cautiously; WFC’s stable reserve posture is consistent with industry. |
Goldman Sachs (GS) — Q1 2026 Earnings (April 13, 2026)
Read-Through Relevance | MEDIUM — GS is most relevant for WFC’s CIB and markets ambitions |
Theme | GS Commentary | WFC Read-Through |
IB Environment | Record Global Banking & Markets revenues of $12.7B. Advisory revenues up 89% YoY; equity underwriting up 45%; debt underwriting up 8%. CEO Solomon: “The environment for Investment Banking activity continues to be incredibly robust, particularly M&A activity.” Backlog at highest level in 4 years. | Exceptional IB environment; WFC’s goal to be top-5 U.S. IB is being pursued in a favorable market. |
Financing / Markets | Equities financing revenues up 59% YoY (record); prime balances at record levels. FICC financing revenues of $1.1B. | Financing-driven balance sheet growth is a broad industry trend — validates WFC’s markets strategy. |
NIM Pressure | NIM compression from competitive deposit environment expected to “persist as a headwind for much of 2026.” | Industry-wide NIM pressure from deposit competition; WFC’s guided 3–4 bps Q2 compression is consistent with peers. |
Private Credit Quality | GS life-to-date realized losses on FICC financing activities (ex-direct CRE) are zero. | Validates WFC’s NFI/non-bank lending portfolio quality narrative. |
Morgan Stanley (MS) — Q1 2026 Earnings (April 15, 2026)
Read-Through Relevance | MEDIUM — MS most relevant for WFC’s wealth management and IB ambitions |
Theme | MS Commentary | WFC Read-Through |
Wealth Management | Record revenues driven by higher asset-based fees and strong net inflows. | Positive for WFC’s wealth business, which guided low double-digit Q2 revenue growth. |
Investment Banking | IB fees up 28% YoY; M&A up 19%; ECM up 64%. | Confirms exceptional IB environment across the industry. |
Markets Revenue | Fixed income up 13%; equities up nearly 40% (surpassing $2B for first time). | Strong markets environment broadly supportive of WFC’s CIB growth. |
Capital Return | Dividend hiked 15% and $20B buyback announced post-DFAST (June 24). | Sets positive precedent for WFC’s capital return potential post-stress test. |
Source: Peer commentary sourced from Q1 2026 earnings call transcripts (JPM, BAC, C, GS, MS) and WFC conference transcripts (Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, May 27, 2026; Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference, June 9, 2026).