ALLE Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-23

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ALLE Report Q2 Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$2.26 vs. cons ~$2.22 MEDIUM
ALLE Report Q2 Total organic revenue growth IN-LINE pred ~+3.3% vs. cons ~+3.0% LOW
ALLE Report Q2 Adjusted operating margin MISS pred ~23.2% vs. cons ~23.6% MEDIUM
ALLE Guide FY2026 Adjusted EPS guide BETTER guide ~$8.80 midpoint (raise from $8.70-$8.90) vs. cons ~$8.73 (FY2026) LOW
ALLE Guide FY2026 organic revenue growth guide UNCHANGED guide ~2-4% (mid ~3%) vs. cons ~3% (FY2026) MEDIUM
ALLE Guide International organic/margin recovery (ERP) commentary UNKNOWN guide International margin ~9-10%/organic still soft in Q2 vs. cons ~10% recovery (H2 2026) LOW
ALLE Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.5% MEDIUM
ALLE Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.5% (STABILIZE) Beaten-down 'show-me' stock at ~16x with low beta (~0.8) and skepticism already priced after the Q1 -7% miss reaction. A modest EPS beat plus a tariff-pricing-driven guide raise (2025 playbook) should spark a relief pop. But the raise is largely mechanical/H2-loaded, Q2 margins likely still down YoY (DCI drag, peso FX, PPII), and the International ERP recovery remains unproven — so out-period estimates barely move up. Initial gain holds but does not compound: gains stabilize as investors wait for actual H2 delivery. LOW