I'll research AMP (Ameriprise Financial) to build a well-informed earnings preview. Let me gather recent earnings, filings, and news.Let me read the most recent earnings materials (Q1 2026) and the year-ago Q2 2025 report for context.I have detailed Q1 2026 data. Now let me get the year-ago Q2 2025 numbers (what they're lapping), recent stock price action, and check for analyst estimates/consensus.I have comprehensive data. Let me quickly check for consensus estimates and any very recent news.I now have everything I need. Let me write the preview.

Ameriprise Financial (AMP) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Report date: Thursday, July 23, 2026 (after close) | Q2 2026 Earnings Call

The Setup

Ameriprise heads into Q2 with the stock at ~$527 (July 22 close), essentially back at its highs after a sharp round-trip this year — shares fell from the low-$530s in early February to a ~$432 trough in mid-March, then rallied ~22% off that bottom. Notably, management bought back stock aggressively into that Q1 weakness ("the opportunistic repurchase of 1.6 million shares to take advantage of the decline in our PE multiple"), so the recovery has come with a lower share count as a tailwind.

What the Street expects (consensus): | Metric | Q2 2026 Est. | Q2 2025 Actual | Implied YoY | |---|---|---|---| | Adjusted operating EPS | ~$10.72–$10.81 | $9.11 | +17–18% | | Adjusted operating revenue | ~$4.79B | $4.34B | ~+10% |

AMP has beaten EPS in each of the last four quarters, most recently posting a record $11.26 vs. ~$10.20 expected in Q1 (a +10% surprise). The bar is respectable: consensus implies another quarter of high-teens EPS growth, and estimates have been stable/rising into the print.

The key dynamic: strong market tailwinds and buybacks should power the headline beat, but the flow narrative is going to look messy because of the Comerica runoff. The market has been told to expect this, so the reaction will hinge on core trends underneath the noise.

The Five Things That Actually Matter

1. Wealth Management flows — brace for optically weak, but know the "why"

This is the single most-watched line and it's going to be noisy for two more quarters. Management flagged that the Comerica relationship (~$18B total in assets) is running off, with outflows accelerating in Q2 and Q3 and the conversion (to Fifth Third) "culminating near the end of the third quarter." Importantly, the financial hit is immaterial — AMP already booked a $25M make-whole in Q1 and got fully compensated — but the assets will flow out and depress reported wrap/client net flows.

Q1 2026 wrap flows were already light at $6.0B (a ~4% annualized rate), down from $8.7B a year ago, hit by Comerica + an aggressive recruiting environment driving elevated advisor departures.
What to focus on: core/same-store organic growth (management reaffirmed a 4–5% target) and whether they quantify the Comerica drag so you can back into a clean number. Jim Cracchiolo promised to "try to be clearer" on isolating it — hold them to it.
Advisor count / recruiting: 61 advisors added in Q1 (vs. 73 in Q2'25). Management is deliberately not chasing the "irrational" transition packages in the market. Watch net recruiting and whether the "pickup in Q2 activity" they teased materialized.

2. Advisor productivity & the AWM margin engine

The real profit story. Advisor productivity hit a record $1.2M (TTM, +10%) in Q1, and AWM pretax margin expanded to 30.0%. Transactional activity was up 10%. This is where AMP differentiates from other independents — core distribution earnings grew mid-30s%. Watch whether margin holds ~29–30% and whether transactional momentum (annuities, brokerage) continued as markets rallied through Q2.

3. Cash & spread — the swing factor into a rate-cut cycle

Sweep balances have been stable (~$29.4B); the bank grew to $25.5B (yield 4.6%, 4-yr duration); certificates keep shrinking (down to $7.6B) on spread economics.
AMP has repeatedly downplayed cash sensitivity — it's a low single-digit % of earnings, avg client cash balance is only ~$6,000, and the bulk of profit is fee/transaction-based. This insulates them from the "AI cash-sweep optimization" fears hitting peers.
Upside optionality: ~$48B still sits in third-party money market funds. Management sees rate cuts as a catalyst to redeploy that cash onto the platform (bank/certificates). Any Fed easing commentary matters here.
New bank products (HELOCs, checking, savings) are ramping — early days, but watch pledged-lending growth and bank earnings contribution.

4. Asset Management — improving flows, elevated margin (is it sustainable?)

Net outflows improved dramatically to $5.9B in Q1 (from $18.3B a year ago), with better retail and institutional trends. Q2 2025 was $8.7B out — watch for continued improvement.
Margin hit 44% in Q1, well above the 35–39% target range, aided by transformation/expense actions. The back-office outsourcing has not yet flowed through the numbers and is expected to complete later this year — a further efficiency lever. Question for the call: how much margin is structural vs. market-driven?
Investment performance remains strong (70%+ of funds above median on 1/3/5-yr; 85% on 10-yr), supporting flow stabilization.

5. Retirement & Protection Solutions — watch the run-rate

RPS earnings dipped to $190M in Q1 (from $215M in Q1'25 and $214M in Q2'25), pressured by higher distribution costs on strong sales and VA-with-living-benefit outflows. Management reiterated an ~$800M/year (~$200M/quarter) target. Watch whether Q2 reverts toward that run-rate; sales have been solid (structured VAs, VUL).

Capital Return — the reliable differentiator

AMP returned 88% of operating earnings ($936M) in Q1 and raised the dividend 6%. Guidance is for 85–90% payout, with management explicitly willing to lean higher when the PE is depressed. ROE (ex-AOCI, adjusted) is best-in-class at 54.3%. Balance sheet is fortress-like: $2.3B excess capital and $2.3B holding-company liquidity, no middle-market lending exposure. With shares having recovered to ~$527, the question is whether Q2 buybacks were as opportunistic as Q1's dip-buying — likely a more "normal" ~85% quarter unless there was another pullback to exploit.

Bull vs. Bear Into the Print

Bulls point to: A powerful market tailwind (S&P and equities rallied through Q2), record AUM feeding fee revenue, disciplined expense control, high-30s%/44% AM margins with more efficiency to come, a lower share count, and a well-telegraphed Comerica drag that's financially immaterial. Consensus of ~17% EPS growth looks achievable given the beat streak.

Bears/risks: Optically ugly net flows for two more quarters (Comerica), an "aggressive" recruiting market pressuring net advisor adds and potentially forcing higher transition-assistance spend later, eventual spread compression as the Fed cuts, and a valuation that has re-rated back near highs — leaving less cushion if flows disappoint or guidance on organic growth softens.

Bottom Line & What to Listen For

Expect a headline EPS beat (~$10.72–$10.81 consensus vs. AMP's habit of topping by ~10%), driven by markets, buybacks and AWM margin. The stock reaction will be decided below the headline:

The clean, ex-Comerica organic flow number — is core still tracking to 4–5%?
Asset Management flow trajectory (continued improvement toward positive) and whether the ~44% margin is durable as back-office savings arrive.
Recruiting discipline vs. attrition — is AMP losing meaningful advisors, or holding the line profitably?
Capital-return pace and any updated view on redeploying the ~$48B third-party cash as rates fall.
Confirmation on Huntington Bank onboarding (~260 advisors, ~$28B) landing in Q4, which sets up a 2027 flow re-acceleration.

A "clean" core with the Comerica noise clearly bridged should be well-received; a disappointment on underlying organic growth — even with a headline beat — is the main risk given the stock's recovery back toward highs.

Note: All figures are company-reported adjusted operating results and analyst consensus as of the preview date. Consensus estimates vary modestly by provider (~$10.72–$10.81 EPS).