Reports: Thursday, July 23, 2026, before market open | Call: 2026Q2 Earnings Call
AMP shares have had a volatile 2026: after peaking near $545 in early February, the stock sold off roughly 20% into the "Liberation Day"-style tariff/market-volatility scare of March/April (bottoming near $432), before staging a strong recovery back to the $520s–$530s range heading into this week's report — essentially round-tripping to new highs just ahead of earnings. That backdrop matters because Ameriprise's fee-based wealth and asset management revenue is directly levered to average market/AUM levels, so the Q2 setup (April–June) followed a choppy-but-ultimately-recovering equity tape.
Consensus expectations going into the quarter: - EPS: roughly $10.6–$10.8 (estimates range from $10.63 to $10.87 depending on source), which would represent ~17–18% y/y growth versus $9.11 in Q2 2025. - Revenue: roughly $4.79 billion, up ~10–11% y/y from $4.34 billion a year ago. - Full-year 2026 consensus EPS sits around $43.01, implying ~9% growth versus 2025's $39.34, with 2027 consensus near $44–46. - AMP's market cap is roughly $41 billion, and the stock has beaten Street EPS estimates in each of its last four quarters, with an average beat around 5%.
Q1 was a record quarter operationally even as headline flow metrics softened. Adjusted operating EPS hit a record $11.26 (+19% y/y), adjusted operating revenue rose 11% to $4.8 billion, AUM/A/A grew 12% to $1.7 trillion, and trailing-12-month ROE reached 54.3% — best-in-class for the sector. Management framed the quarter as "a strong start to the year, driven by our disciplined execution and the benefits of our diversified business," while acknowledging that market volatility drove "more cautious client behavior."
Key items investors should carry into Q2:
1. Advice & Wealth Management (AWM) flows — watch for continued Comerica noise. AWM net flows were notably lighter in Q1 ($4.2B in total client flows vs. $10.3B a year ago; wrap flows of $6.0B vs. $8.7B), driven by a combination of an aggressive industry recruiting environment and the accelerating departure of advisors from the Comerica relationship following its acquisition by Fifth Third. Management explicitly guided that "the higher pace of outflows related to Comerica will continue in the second and third quarters, culminating with the conversion occurring near the end of the third quarter." The full $18 billion Comerica book is expected to be essentially out by the end of Q3, so Q2 net flows should still show elevated attrition noise — investors should look through this to underlying "same-store" organic growth, which management says remains solid. The offsetting positive: Huntington National Bank was signed as a new AFIG retail investment program partner in Q1 (~260 advisors, ~$28 billion in combined assets), though that onboarding isn't expected to hit the books until Q4 2026.
2. Margins and capital return discipline. AWM pretax margin expanded to 30.0% in Q1 (from 28.5% a year ago), aided partly by a one-time $25 million Comerica termination payment, but core distribution earnings still grew "in the mid-30% range" even excluding that item. Asset Management margin ran hot at 43.8% (well above the targeted 35–39% range), with management flagging that back-office outsourcing benefits have "not taken hold yet" — a potential source of further margin upside as 2026 progresses. On capital return, AMP returned 88% of operating earnings to shareholders in Q1 ($936 million) via buybacks and dividends, raised its quarterly dividend 6%, and management indicated a willingness to lean into repurchases (targeting an 85–90% payout range) opportunistically given valuation.
3. Recruiting/competitive intensity. A recurring theme on the Q1 call was aggressive third-party recruiting deals (both W-2 and franchise channels) with "long cash paybacks and marginal P&L benefits," which management said it is deliberately not chasing in order to protect returns. This is a watch item for Q2 — any signs AMP is being forced to raise transition-assistance packages (which would pressure distribution expense/margin) would be a incremental negative, while continued discipline supports the margin story.
4. Asset Management outflows improving but still negative. Net outflows improved sharply to $5.9 billion in Q1 (from $18.3 billion a year ago), with both retail and institutional channels improving. Investment performance remains a strength (70%+ of funds above peer median across 1/3/5-year periods). Continued sequential improvement in net flows would be a positive data point for Q2.
5. Retirement & Protection — steady, not a swing factor. Pretax earnings were $190 million in Q1 (down 12% y/y on higher distribution expense and VA outflows), with management reiterating a longer-term run-rate expectation of roughly $800 million/year for the segment.
Sell-side previews (Zacks) point to continued AUM/AUA growth as the key tailwind, with the consensus for total AUM and AUA pegged around $1.72 trillion (+~8% y/y), and management/financial advice fees (>60% of total net revenue) expected around $2.98 billion (+~15% y/y). Distribution fees are expected near $579 million (+~15% y/y). The consistent offsetting headwind flagged across previews is rising expenses — a function of continued technology/AI investment, advisor compensation tied to higher productivity, and recruiting-related distribution costs.
Ameriprise heads into Q2 2026 earnings with a strong recent track record (four straight EPS beats, record ROE >54%, record adjusted EPS in Q1) and a stock that has fully recovered from its spring drawdown to trade near 2026 highs. The core wealth management franchise (advisor productivity, fee growth, capital return) remains the primary earnings engine, while the Comerica-related outflow noise is a known, well-telegraphed headwind that should not surprise the market if it tracks management's guidance. The bar is set high — consensus looks for ~17-18% EPS growth and low-double-digit revenue growth — so the key swing factors for a beat-or-miss reaction are likely to be (1) how much of the Comerica attrition actually shows up in reported flows versus prior guidance, (2) whether expense growth (recruiting/tech investment) outpaces revenue leverage, and (3) any incremental color on capital return pace given the stock's re-rating higher.