Timing note: July 23, 2026 is today, not tomorrow. Ameriprise is scheduled to release results at approximately 7:45 a.m. ET on Thursday, July 23, followed by its conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET. (ir.ameriprise.com)
The setup is favorable but no longer undemanding.
Ameriprise enters Q2 with strong earnings momentum, rising equity markets, exceptional margins and substantial buyback capacity. The principal concern is the quality of Advice & Wealth Management flows: approximately $18 billion of Comerica-related assets are expected to leave by the end of Q3, while aggressive recruiting packages across the industry have increased advisor attrition.
The stock has rallied roughly 15% since the Q1 report through July 22, versus about 6% for SPY. Consequently, investors will likely require more than a routine EPS beat. The report needs to show that:
Published estimates vary somewhat by provider:
| Metric | Approximate expectation |
|---|---|
| Adjusted/operating EPS | $10.60–$10.80 |
| Revenue | $4.8–$4.9 billion |
| Q2 2025 adjusted operating EPS | $9.11 |
| Implied EPS growth | Approximately 17%–19% YoY |
Barchart currently shows a six-analyst average of $10.63, with a $10.30–$10.77 range, while other aggregators are closer to $10.80. (barchart.com)
The consensus decline from Q1’s $11.26 should not be interpreted as deterioration in the underlying franchise. Q1 benefited from a one-time Comerica termination payment, had a lower tax rate and began with a higher diluted share count than Q2 likely will.
Ameriprise reported Q1 adjusted operating EPS of $11.26, up 19%, on $4.8 billion of adjusted operating net revenue. Advice & Wealth Management generated a 30% pretax margin, while Asset Management’s net pretax margin reached 44%. (ir.ameriprise.com)
Several identified items affect the sequential comparison:
Ameriprise formally disclosed the fee-day, trading-day, share-compensation and tax assumptions in its May 29 update. (s205.q4cdn.com)
Taken together, the higher tax rate and loss of the Comerica payment largely explain why consensus EPS sits below Q1 despite stronger equity markets.
Q1 Advice & Wealth Management metrics were strong overall:
The weakness was that wrap flows declined from $8.7 billion a year earlier, while total client flows fell from $10.3 billion. The company attributed much of that deterioration to advisor departures and the acceleration of Comerica outflows. (ir.ameriprise.com)
The headline flow number may be poor in Q2 without indicating weaker economics. Management has said the approximately $18 billion Comerica relationship should be fully transferred by the end of Q3 and that the financial impact is immaterial following the termination payment.
Investors should therefore focus on:
The Huntington Bank relationship is important strategically, but it is expected to add approximately 260 advisors and $28 billion of assets primarily in Q4, so it should not benefit Q2 flows.
AWM earnings increased 20% in Q1, or approximately 17% excluding the Comerica payment. Core distribution earnings grew in the mid-30% range, demonstrating that Ameriprise’s profitability is driven primarily by advisory and transactional revenue rather than cash-sweep economics.
The key question is whether the Q1 margin was near a sustainable run rate. Relevant moving pieces include:
A result around 29%–30% would be reassuring. A materially lower margin accompanied by elevated retention spending would warrant scrutiny.
Asset Management had an unusually strong Q1:
The 44% margin was well above management’s historical 35%–39% target range. Stronger markets should support Q2 fees, while the additional fee day contributes approximately $5 million pretax. However, the most important indicators are:
A modest margin normalization would not be concerning if flows and gross sales improve. Conversely, another quarter of heavy outflows masked by market appreciation would reduce the quality of the result.
Retirement & Protection earned $190 million pretax in Q1, down 12%, reflecting higher distribution costs from strong sales and continued runoff of variable annuities with living benefits.
Management continues to frame this business as capable of producing approximately $800 million of annual pretax adjusted operating earnings, implying roughly $200 million per quarter over time. Investors should look for Q2 earnings closer to that level, while recognizing that strong new-product sales can initially raise distribution expense.
Continued movement away from living-benefit guarantees toward structured annuities and other lower-risk products would be strategically positive even if it creates some quarterly earnings noise.
Ameriprise returned $936 million, or 88% of Q1 operating earnings, through dividends and repurchases. Management indicated that capital return should generally remain around 85%–90% of operating earnings, with flexibility to buy more aggressively when the valuation is attractive.
The company entered Q2 with approximately:
With the shares trading around 12 times the current 2026 EPS consensus, continued repurchases remain accretive. The questions are how aggressively the company bought during the lower share-price period in May and June, and whether the recent rally changes management’s pace.
Ameriprise should report another quarter of strong double-digit adjusted EPS growth, supported by higher asset levels, fee-day benefits, expense discipline and buybacks. The more important issue is not whether EPS exceeds a roughly $10.7 consensus—it is whether management can demonstrate that the core wealth franchise is organically healthy beneath the temporary Comerica outflows.
Given the stock’s sharp post-Q1 rally, the best outcome would combine a clean EPS beat with transparent flow disclosure and continued confidence in margins and capital return. A headline beat driven mainly by markets and share repurchases, without evidence of healthy core flows, would likely receive a less enthusiastic reaction.