Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP) — 2Q26 Earnings Preview

Date clarification: The event is listed for Thursday, July 23, 2026—which is today, not tomorrow. This preview is therefore framed for investors ahead of the reported 2Q26 release/call.

Investment setup: strong underlying earnings, but flows are the swing factor

Ameriprise enters 2Q with a favorable market backdrop, excellent operating momentum in Advice & Wealth Management (AWM), and ample capacity for capital return. The central debate is less about whether fee revenue benefited from higher markets, and more about whether the company can demonstrate that its organic growth engine remains intact while it works through the temporary—but sizable—Comerica-related asset attrition.

The stock has already recovered meaningfully into the report: AMP rose 14.6% from the prior earnings date (April 23) through July 22, versus 5.5% for the S&P 500 over the same period. However, it lagged during the calendar second quarter through June 30—AMP gained 3.2% versus 14.8% for the S&P 500—suggesting investors may be looking for confirmation that flow pressure and recruiting competition are manageable rather than merely temporary.

What matters most this quarter

1. AWM net flows: isolate the Comerica noise from core organic trends

This is the most important item on the print and call.

In 1Q26, AWM generated:

Those reported flow figures were held back by advisor departures and the accelerated transition of the former Comerica relationship. Management indicated that Comerica represented roughly $18 billion of assets and expected the associated departures to continue—and potentially accelerate—through 2Q and 3Q, with the transition completed around the end of September.

That means weak reported flows alone would not necessarily undermine the thesis. Investors should instead focus on:

A constructive result would show that reported net flows are noisy but that core advisor productivity, client engagement, and same-store asset gathering remain healthy. A more negative outcome would be expanding attrition beyond Comerica or an indication that management must materially increase transition packages to defend its advisor base.

2. Fee-revenue upside from the market backdrop

AMP is highly leveraged to average asset levels through advisory, management, and distribution fees. At the end of 1Q, total assets under management, administration, and advisement were $1.67 trillion, up 12% year over year.

The substantial market appreciation during 2Q should support:

This should be a particularly favorable backdrop for AWM, where 1Q management and financial-advice fees grew 17% year over year and advisor productivity reached a record $1.16 million on a trailing-12-month basis.

The key nuance: market strength can raise revenues quickly, but the earnings conversion matters. Investors should watch whether higher variable compensation and growth investments absorb too much of the benefit, or whether AMP again demonstrates operating leverage.

3. AWM margins and the quality of earnings

AWM adjusted operating earnings rose 20% year over year to $951 million in 1Q, including a $25 million benefit related to the Comerica termination. Excluding that item, management said segment earnings grew roughly 17%, while core distribution earnings increased in the mid-30% range.

For 2Q, the questions are:

The 1Q result showed that AMP’s earnings are driven primarily by core wealth-management fees and activity rather than cash-sweep economics. That distinction remains important: a resilient fee-led revenue mix should make results more durable than peers with greater dependence on client cash balances.

4. Asset Management: improved flows and elevated margins need validation

Columbia Threadneedle delivered a strong 1Q financially, but the strategic challenge is still net flows.

1Q Asset Management results included:

The margin was well above management’s longer-term 35%–39% target range, supported by asset growth and expense discipline. Management also indicated that further back-office transformation savings had not yet fully appeared in results.

For 2Q, investors should look for:

The most favorable scenario is modest outflows or flow breakeven combined with continued expense discipline. Persistent material outflows would not necessarily derail near-term earnings given market appreciation, but it would limit confidence in the longer-term asset-management growth story.

5. Retirement & Protection: earnings recovery versus sales-related expense

Retirement & Protection Solutions is a high-cash-flow business, but it was the relative soft spot in 1Q. Pretax adjusted operating earnings declined 12% year over year to $190 million, reflecting higher distribution expenses tied to solid sales and ongoing run-off in variable annuities with living benefits.

Management continues to target roughly $800 million of annual earnings over time. The 2Q report should clarify whether 1Q was simply a timing and sales-mix issue or whether profitability is tracking below that longer-run level.

Important indicators include:

Capital return remains a core support

Capital generation and shareholder return are major components of the AMP thesis.

In 1Q, AMP returned $936 million to shareholders—equal to 88% of adjusted operating earnings—through dividends and repurchases. The company repurchased 1.6 million shares at an average price of $478.93, had $1.8 billion remaining on its repurchase authorization as of March 31, and reported $2.3 billion of excess capital and parent-company available liquidity.

Management indicated it expected to return roughly 85%–90% of operating earnings during 2026, while retaining flexibility to lean into repurchases if valuation is attractive.

Investors should listen for:

What could drive a positive reaction

  1. Core AWM flows hold up despite reported Comerica-related attrition.
  2. Fee revenue and operating leverage exceed expectations on stronger average asset values.
  3. AWM margins remain around 30% with no meaningful increase in retention or recruiting costs.
  4. Asset Management outflows continue to improve while elevated margins hold.
  5. Capital return stays aggressive, reinforcing confidence in free-cash-flow generation.
  6. Management reiterates that the Huntington Bank onboarding—approximately 260 advisors and $28 billion of assets—remains on track for 4Q26.

What could disappoint

  1. Flows deteriorate beyond the expected Comerica transition, implying broader advisor-retention pressure.
  2. Management lowers confidence in its 4%–5% AWM organic-growth objective or acknowledges more aggressive recruiting spend.
  3. AWM margin compression offsets the expected market-driven revenue benefit.
  4. Asset Management returns to materially larger net outflows.
  5. Retirement & Protection earnings remain weak versus the approximately $800 million annualized target.
  6. Buybacks are materially lighter than the 85%–90% capital-return framework would imply.

Bottom line

AMP’s 2Q26 setup is fundamentally favorable: high markets should support asset-based revenue, AWM productivity is strong, margins are differentiated, and capital return remains substantial. But the market will likely judge the quarter through the lens of flow quality and advisor retention, not headline EPS alone.

The cleanest bullish outcome is one where market-driven fee growth and operating leverage are evident, while management convincingly separates temporary Comerica attrition from otherwise stable or improving organic client and advisor trends. Conversely, a weaker flow print becomes more problematic if AMP suggests that recruiting competition is forcing it to sacrifice profitability or if the expected 4Q Huntington onboarding is needed to mask a deteriorating underlying trend.