{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "EPS (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$4.52 vs. cons $4.41",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total revenue net of interest (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$19.8B vs. cons $19.7B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Card Member billed business / spend growth YoY",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~9% vs. cons ~9.5% (~1pt co-brand roll-off drag begins Q2)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 revenue growth guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~9-10% vs. cons ~9.7% (FY2026, reaffirmed not raised)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 EPS guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$17.30-$17.90 vs. cons ~$17.70 (FY2026; upside reinvested, not raised)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net card fee growth trajectory",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~high-teens by year-end vs. cons ~+16% (FY2026 exit rate)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Credit / net write-off rate (US Consumer)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~1.8% Q2 write-off vs. cons ~1.8% (generally stable 2026; June aided by asset sale)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Likely EPS beat but reaffirmed (not raised) FY guide plus the newly-begun Amazon/Lowe's co-brand roll-off (~1pt billings drag) and asset-sale-flattered June write-offs give analysts reason to trim out-period billings/organic-growth estimates even after a headline beat. Stock already faded ~6% from its mid-July $361 high into the print, signaling de-risking; a 'reinvest-over-raise' posture at rich valuation caps upside, so the initial soft reaction follows through modestly lower as revisions net down.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}