I'll research AXP thoroughly before writing the preview. Let me start by gathering recent earnings materials, guidance, and news.I have the key context. Let me read the most recent earnings materials (2026Q1 release and call) and the prior-year Q2 for comparison, plus the recent 8-K on write-off rates.Now let me get the prior-year Q2 2025 results for YoY comparison, the recent write-off 8-K, and stock price performance.I have everything I need. Let me write the preview.
American Express heads into Q2 2026 carrying real momentum but a lagging stock. The shares closed at $340.88 on July 23, down roughly 9% year-to-date (from ~$373 at the start of January) — notably worse than Visa (roughly flat) and Mastercard (down ~6%) over the same window. AXP sold off hard in late February/early March (troughing near $290–300 amid tariff/recession fears) before recovering ~15% off the lows into June/July. In short: the operating story has been strong, but the market has been pricing in macro and consumer-cyclical risk, leaving expectations reasonable rather than euphoric going in.
The buy-side mood into the print is constructive — driven by resilient high-end spending, clean execution, and an ongoing mix shift toward higher-multiple revenue (discount revenue, card fees).
| Metric | Q2 2026 Consensus | Q2 2025 Actual | Implied YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue (net of interest) | ~$19.7B | $17.86B | +10.3% |
| EPS | $4.41 | $4.08 | +8% |
For context, the prior quarter (Q1 2026) set a high bar: revenue +11% (10% FX-adjusted) to $18.9B, EPS $4.28 (+18%), and Card Member spending +10% — the fastest quarterly billings growth in three years. ROE ran at 35%.
Full-year 2026 guidance (reaffirmed at Q1): revenue growth of 9–10% and EPS of $17.30–$17.90. With H1 2025 EPS at $7.71, the 2026 guide implies continued double-digit earnings growth, and management has repeatedly framed the "10%" top-line aspiration as achievable.
Q1's 10% spend growth was the standout. The critical wrinkle for Q2 is a new headwind: the small-business co-brand portfolios being exited (the Amazon and Lowe's books, held for sale) begin dragging reported growth. Management flagged a low-single-digit hit to SME spend growth starting in Q2 and roughly ~1pt drag on consolidated billings/balance growth, with negligible impact to pre-tax income. Investors should look through this optics-only drag to organic trends — especially T&E (airline spend had softened late in Q1 on Middle East travel disruption), luxury retail (was +18% in Q1), and international (double-digit FX-adjusted for 20+ straight quarters).
The U.S. Consumer/Business Platinum refresh launched in fall 2025, so Q2 is the final quarter before the year-ago comparison starts to lap it. Management said the refresh drove a ~6pt acceleration in U.S. Consumer Platinum spend (mostly from tenured/back-book members), with retention holding at pre-refresh levels despite the higher fee, and only ~¼ of the portfolio billed at the new fee so far. Watch net card fee growth, guided to accelerate into the high teens by year-end (was +16% FX-adjusted in Q1). This is the highest-quality, most recurring revenue line and central to the bull case.
AXP's mid-quarter credit 8-K (July 15) showed stable-to-improving trends, but with an important caveat: - U.S. Consumer: 30-day past-due steady at 1.1%; Q2 net write-off rate 1.8% (June printed just 1.4%). - U.S. Small Business: 30-DPD 1.4%; Q2 net write-off rate 2.4%. - Caveat: In June, AXP sold previously written-off balances to a third party, which reduced the June net write-off rate by ~0.3pt (consumer) and ~0.1pt (small business). Adjusting for that, underlying write-offs are closer to stable than the headline improvement implies.
Delinquencies and write-offs remain below 2019 levels, consistent with guidance for "generally stable" credit in 2026. The swing factor for EPS will be the reserve build/release — Q1 saw a small $24M release; a larger macro-driven build would pressure the beat.
This is the central debate. AXP reaffirmed (rather than raised) at Q1 despite an 11% revenue quarter, explicitly choosing to reinvest the EPS upside into marketing and technology rather than drop it to the bottom line. If billings held up in Q2, the question is whether management finally nudges the range higher (particularly toward the top end of the 9–10% revenue aspiration) or again elects to reinvest. Given the mid-year timing and management's stated "invest-through-the-cycle" philosophy, a reinvestment-over-raise posture would not surprise — and could disappoint investors hoping for a numbers hike.
Management guided the VCE-to-revenue ratio to ~44% for the full year (Q1 ran 44.7% on seasonality) and now expects marketing to grow mid-single-digits (up from flat) — a deliberate ramp funded by outperformance. Watch operating-expense discipline: Q1 benefited from a couple of one-offs (a European VAT court decision, a Switzerland JV gain) that won't recur. AI-driven coding/servicing efficiencies (~30% programmer productivity gains cited) are an emerging offset to watch.
Millennial/Gen-Z growth remains the engine (Gen-Z spend +38%, Millennials +13% in Q1), with 70%+ of new accounts on fee-paying products. Separately, AXP is executing its largest-ever one-year commercial product expansion (8 new/enhanced products, the new Graphite Business Cash card, Center/Hypercard expense-management tools) — but management framed these as 2027 tailwinds, not 2026 drivers, so don't expect a near-term commercial inflection.
Bull case: Premium, affluent customer base is proving macro-resilient; billings at a 3-year high; card fees accelerating into high-teens; credit best-in-class; 35% ROE with ~75% of earnings returned to shareholders (dividend raised 16%); stock still ~9% below its January level, leaving room if numbers hold.
Bear case: Rich absolute valuation for a lender in a late-cycle consumer; co-brand roll-off obscures organic deceleration; Platinum tailwind lapping soon; June write-off improvement partly cosmetic (asset sale); reinvestment posture caps EPS upside; heavy exposure to discretionary T&E if the consumer cracks.
The bar is a ~$19.7B / $4.41 EPS print with ~10% revenue growth. The stock reaction will likely hinge less on the headline (a beat is widely expected given spend momentum) and more on three things: (1) the organic billings trend once you strip out the co-brand roll-off; (2) whether card-fee growth confirms the accelerating trajectory toward the high teens; and (3) whether management raises full-year guidance or again reinvests the upside. Credit will be scrutinized for any signs the June improvement was purely the written-off-loan sale. A clean beat with a guidance raise would be the bullish outcome; a beat paired with "reinvesting for the long term" and a maintained guide could see the stock fade despite good fundamentals.
Sources: AXP Q1 2026 earnings release & call transcript (Apr 23, 2026); Q2 2025 earnings release (Jul 18, 2025); AXP Form 8-K credit statistics filed Jul 15, 2026; consensus figures per market news digest (Jul 17, 2026); price data through Jul 23, 2026.
Note: This is a research-based preview for informational purposes, not investment advice.