Reports: Friday, July 24, 2026, before market open | Call: 8:30 AM ET
AXP heads into tomorrow's report on a strong footing after a blowout Q1, but with the stock having pulled back from mid-July highs (~$361 on 7/16) to ~$341 as of 7/23, reflecting some pre-earnings nerves amid a shakier macro tape (oil above $100/bbl on Middle East tensions, mixed mega-cap tech earnings, and a cautious read from American Airlines on travel demand).
Consensus expectations: - EPS: ~$4.40–$4.41 (vs. $4.08 a year ago), implying roughly 8% YoY growth - Revenue: ~$19.6–$19.7B, implying ~10% YoY growth - FY26 guidance (reaffirmed at Q1): revenue growth of 9%–10% and EPS of $17.30–$17.90
Sentiment heading in is generally bullish due to favorable macro trends (including resilient/healthy spending in its higher-end customer demographic), solid execution, and an ongoing shift in revenue mix toward higher-multiple businesses like discount revenue and card fees.
Q1 2026 was a standout quarter that raises the bar for Q2. American Express delivered first-quarter 2026 net income of $3.0 billion, compared with net income of $2.6 billion a year ago, with EPS of $4.28, up 18 percent from $3.64 a year ago, on revenue up 11%, or 10% FX-adjusted. Card Member spending growth accelerated meaningfully — CEO Steve Squeri noted Card Member spending grew 10% on a reported basis, the highest quarterly growth in 3 years, driven by strong growth across both Goods & Services and T&E. Management was confident enough in the trajectory that it increased marketing and technology investment rather than letting the Q1 beat flow entirely to the bottom line, explicitly reaffirming — not raising — full-year guidance and directing the upside into growth initiatives.
1. Is the spending momentum durable, or was Q1 the peak? Much of Q1's acceleration was tied to the lapping benefits of the U.S. Platinum refresh. CFO Christophe Le Caillec flagged that this refresh gets lapped in September, and cautioned as you think about projecting that into 2027... I don't think at this stage, we should expect like a further acceleration... I expect that step-up to maintain into 2027, but I don't think that you should expect to see another one. Watch for early signs of billed-business deceleration as this tailwind fades, along with the previously flagged drag as the Amazon and Lowe's co-brand books roll off (a revenue drag with no bottom-line impact) and the ongoing exit of SME co-brand held-for-sale portfolios (expected to create a "low single-digit" hit to SME spend growth starting in Q2).
2. Travel/T&E spend amid $100+ oil and Middle East disruption Management already flagged in Q1 that airline growth softened in the last few weeks of March and into April, driven by travel disruptions from the Middle East conflict, though they characterized the impact as not "that large." Since then, oil has stayed elevated (American Airlines cut guidance twice this year citing Brent above $100/barrel), so investors will want to know if front-of-cabin/luxury travel spend among Amex's premium base has stayed resilient — JPMorgan's recent upgrade thesis leans on the idea that Amex's high-income customer base is "relatively shielded" from the Middle East crisis.
3. Credit quality — helped by an asset sale An 8-K filed July 15 showed June write-off rates declining, but investors should look past the headline: the filing notes that during June 2026, the Company sold certain previously written-off Card balances to a third party... the sale reduced the net write-off rates by approximately 0.3% and 0.1% for the U.S. Consumer and U.S. Small Business portfolios, respectively. On a normalized basis, the U.S. Consumer net write-off rate for the three months ended June 30 was 1.8% (vs. 2.0% in Q1), and small-business was 2.4% (flat with Q1) — still consistent with management's "generally stable" 2026 credit outlook, but the reported June improvement is partly cosmetic.
4. Net interest income and card fee growth — the mix shift story Card fees are Amex's fastest-growing line, and management guided for further acceleration: we expect card fee growth to pick up as the year progresses as we see the impact from platinum refresh exiting the year in the high teens. NII has also been outgrowing balances (helped by cheaper high-yield-savings funding), a dynamic to confirm continued in Q2, alongside balance growth (~7% FX-adjusted in Q1).
5. Expense discipline vs. reinvestment Marketing spend was flat YoY in Q1 ($1.5B) but management said it now expects marketing expenses to grow in the mid-single digits for the full year, and guided the VCE-to-revenue ratio to run "around 44%" for the full year. Watch whether the step-up in tech/marketing spend that funded Q1's over-delivery starts pressuring the expense ratio, or whether stronger revenue continues to offset it.
6. Capital returns and regulatory backdrop Q1 saw a 16% dividend increase, $2.3B of capital returned, and a 35% ROE. Management called the Basel capital proposals an improvement from the prior proposal... we expect the impact to capital requirements to range from neutral to modestly positive — a tailwind for continued buyback capacity that should be reaffirmed.
Consumer-finance peers have sent mixed signals: Capital One posted solid revenue growth in-line with expectations, Synchrony Financial missed slightly, and Wells Fargo's card business showed strength, with its CEO noting broadly that "these times are really good for banks." Meanwhile, airlines (American Airlines) have flagged margin pressure from high fuel costs — a potential (if likely modest, per Amex's own commentary) drag on Amex's T&E-heavy billings mix.
Wall Street has grown incrementally more constructive into the print: JPMorgan upgraded AXP to Overweight (from Neutral) with a price target raised to $400 from $328, and Morgan Stanley moved to Overweight, while Evercore initiated at Neutral and Wells Fargo maintains Overweight (trimming its target slightly to $415 from $425 back in April). The stock carries a "Moderate Buy" consensus, with average price targets clustered around $373–$375, implying modest upside from current levels near $341–$350. Options/analyst commentary also frames the setup as "neutral-to-positive," with the key swing factor being whether the strong business momentum seen in the first quarter will continue into the second quarter and whether rising credit costs and provisions offset otherwise robust customer activity.
American Express enters this print with a high bar after an exceptional Q1, reaffirmed full-year guidance, and a management team that has shown willingness to reinvest upside into growth (marketing, tech, commercial product launches, agentic-commerce initiatives) rather than bank it as EPS beats. The key debate for investors is less about the Q2 print itself — consensus numbers look achievable given the Q1 trajectory — and more about the durability of spend growth into H2 2026 as the Platinum refresh tailwind laps, co-brand portfolios roll off, and macro/travel-cost headwinds (oil, geopolitical disruption) linger. Credit metrics remain a relative strength, though the June write-off improvement should be read net of the one-time asset-sale benefit. Management's tone on card fee acceleration, NII growth, and confidence in reaffirming (or raising) FY26 guidance will likely matter more for the stock than the headline EPS/revenue beat-or-miss.