Reporting: Friday, July 24, 2026, before the U.S. market opens
Conference call: 8:30 a.m. ET
AXP closing price, July 23: $340.88
American Express enters the quarter with strong operating momentum: premium-card spending accelerated in Q1, annual-fee revenue is benefiting from the Platinum refresh, international growth remains robust, and credit quality is still unusually strong.
The principal question is no longer whether the franchise is healthy. It is whether that strength is sufficient to support a higher full-year outlook after management deliberately redirected Q1 upside into marketing and technology.
A constructive report would combine:
The main risk is that strong headline revenue is absorbed by higher benefit, marketing, technology and regulatory costs, leaving little incremental EPS upside.
Approximate consensus going into the report:
| Metric | Q2 2026 estimate | Q2 2025 actual | Implied growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, net of interest expense | $19.7 billion | $17.86 billion | 10.3% |
| Diluted EPS | $4.41 | $4.08 | 8.1% |
Current full-year guidance is:
At the $17.60 midpoint, AXP trades at approximately 19.4x guided 2026 EPS. The shares are down about 8% year to date, but have risen roughly 7% since the Q1 report. Expectations are positive, though not excessively stretched.
If AXP earns the Q2 consensus, first-half EPS would be approximately $8.69. The guidance midpoint would then require $8.91 in the second half, or about $4.46 per quarter. That is achievable, but it also means a modest Q2 beat alone would not force management to raise guidance.
Q1 billed business rose 10% as reported and 9% on an FX-adjusted basis—the strongest growth in three years. The underlying composition was also encouraging:
Management noted some airline softness late in Q1 due to Middle East travel disruptions, but characterized the effect as modest. The conflict and higher fuel prices remained relevant during Q2, creating a useful test of the premium customer base’s resilience.
What investors should watch:
A deceleration caused only by temporary travel disruption would be manageable. Broad weakness across luxury retail, dining and premium consumer spending would be more concerning.
The refreshed U.S. Consumer Platinum portfolio was a central driver of Q1’s acceleration. Management reported:
Only about one-quarter of the U.S. Consumer Platinum portfolio had been billed at the higher annual fee by the end of Q1. That should make Q2 an important quarter for net card-fee acceleration.
Management expects card-fee growth to increase as the year progresses and to exit 2026 in the high teens.
Key indicators:
This is arguably the most important structural issue in the report. Strong retention and fee growth would validate the refresh and improve the quality and predictability of AXP’s revenue mix.
AXP’s July 15 credit disclosure was favorable:
| Q2 credit metric | U.S. consumer | U.S. small business |
|---|---|---|
| 30+ day delinquency rate | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| Principal-only net write-off rate | 1.8% | 2.4% |
June delinquencies were also stable or lower sequentially. However, AXP sold certain previously written-off balances during June, lowering the reported June net write-off rates by approximately:
Investors should therefore focus more on delinquency trends, reserve commentary and normalized loss rates than on the unusually low June write-off number.
The broader picture remains favorable. Q1 consolidated principal-only write-offs were 2.0%, down from 2.1% a year earlier, while consumer and small-business delinquencies remained low. Management had expected generally stable credit metrics during 2026.
A positive outcome: stable delinquencies, limited reserve building and no meaningful deterioration in recently acquired customers.
A negative outcome: a reserve build driven by a weaker economic outlook, rising small-business delinquencies or evidence that younger customer cohorts are becoming more cyclical.
Q1 revenue rose 11%, but management kept full-year guidance unchanged and increased planned marketing and technology investment. Full-year marketing expense is now expected to grow at a mid-single-digit rate, despite being flat in Q1.
That implies a meaningful step-up in spending during the remainder of the year.
Management also continues to invest in:
Variable customer engagement costs are another important factor. Q1 Card Member services expense rose 49%, largely because of the Platinum refresh and increased benefit utilization. Management still expects the full-year variable customer engagement cost-to-revenue ratio to be around 44%, below Q1’s 44.7%.
The key question: Is AXP producing operating leverage before discretionary reinvestment?
Investors should distinguish between:
A revenue beat accompanied by disciplined underlying expenses would be more valuable than a nominal EPS beat driven by taxes, reserves or one-time gains.
Commercial Services billed business grew only 4% in Q1. Management said organic conditions were showing some improvement, but the exit of certain Amazon and Lowe’s small-business cobrand portfolios will create a low-single-digit drag on SME spending growth beginning in Q2. The portfolios should have a negligible effect on pretax income.
AXP is responding with its largest one-year commercial product expansion, including:
Management has cautioned that most of the growth benefit will likely emerge in 2027 rather than 2026.
For Q2, investors should look for stabilization rather than a dramatic acceleration. Commercial growth above the Q1 rate, after adjusting for portfolio exits, would be an encouraging signal.
AXP agreed to sell its approximately 30% interest in Global Business Travel Group as part of the Long Lake and General Catalyst acquisition. Upon closing, AXP expects:
The gain was not included in AXP’s existing 2026 guidance. On a rough after-tax, per-share basis, it could be worth approximately $1.10, but timing depends on the transaction closing.
Management has said it expects to invest part of the gain and return part to shareholders. Investors should exclude this item when assessing underlying earnings power and carefully distinguish between reported and operating guidance.
Q2 2025 had a relatively low 18.7% effective tax rate due to discrete benefits. That creates a less favorable EPS comparison if the Q2 2026 rate returns to the low-20% range.
Q1 2026 also benefited from several favorable expense items, including a European VAT-related reserve release and a gain connected to the Swisscard acquisition. Q2’s underlying expense growth may therefore look less favorable sequentially even without deterioration in the business.
The small-business cobrand portfolio exits will distort:
Management has consistently said the pretax-income effect should be negligible. Investors should avoid treating mechanically slower volumes as equivalent to weaker economics.
The setup is favorable, supported by resilient premium spending, accelerating fee revenue and excellent credit quality. The cleanest source of upside is the Platinum refresh: more customers are moving onto the higher annual fee while retention and spending have so far remained strong.
The likely debate after the report will center on how much of that strength reaches shareholders in 2026 versus being reinvested for 2027 and beyond. At roughly 19x the current EPS guidance midpoint, AXP does not need a spectacular quarter, but it does need a high-quality one. Sustained spending, stable retention and clean credit would matter more than a small EPS beat produced by taxes or one-time items.