Report date: Friday, July 24, 2026, before the U.S. market open
Event: 2026Q2 Earnings Call
Street expectations: $19.7B revenue (+10.3% YoY) and $4.41 EPS (vs. $4.08 in 2Q25)
American Express enters 2Q with its core premium-consumer growth story intact: spend momentum accelerated in 1Q, card-fee growth remains exceptionally strong, credit has stayed benign, and the company is reinvesting incremental earnings into customer acquisition and technology rather than maximizing near-term EPS.
The key issue for investors is therefore not simply whether AXP meets the $4.41 EPS consensus. It is whether management can demonstrate that:
At $340.88 as of July 23, AXP is down roughly 8% year to date, versus Visa being modestly positive over the same period. Using the midpoint of AXP’s FY26 EPS guidance ($17.60), the stock trades at roughly 19.4x management’s current-year outlook. That valuation leaves the shares dependent on sustained premium-spend growth, continued fee momentum, and no material deterioration in credit or expense discipline.
AXP’s 1Q results were notably strong:
| Metric | 1Q26 result | YoY growth |
|---|---|---|
| Billed business | $428.0B | 10% reported / 9% FX-adjusted |
| Total revenue, net of interest expense | $18.9B | 11% reported / 10% FX-adjusted |
| EPS | $4.28 | 18% |
| U.S. Consumer billed business | $180.2B | 10% |
| Commercial Services billed business | $134.4B | 4% |
| International Card Services billed business | $111.7B | 20% reported / 13% FX-adjusted |
The setup into 2Q is favorable but not frictionless. Management said that airline spending softened in late March and early April amid Middle East-related travel disruption, while emphasizing that the impact was not material to overall billed-business trends. Investors will want a definitive update on whether travel recovered through May and June.
What would be constructive: - FX-adjusted billed-business growth holding around high single digits; - Continued strength in T&E, particularly airline and lodging; - Ongoing double-digit U.S. Consumer growth; - International maintaining a clear growth premium to the U.S.
What would concern investors: - A sharper-than-expected step-down in airline, cross-border, or luxury spending; - A broad deceleration in U.S. consumer spending; - Commercial spend remaining stuck in low single digits, particularly if management’s anticipated SME portfolio runoff becomes more visible.
The U.S. Platinum refresh is a major support for the current thesis. In 1Q, management cited accelerating spend on the refreshed U.S. Platinum portfolio, high retention despite the higher annual fee, and elevated use of membership benefits. Net card fees grew 18% in 1Q, the fastest major revenue line.
That matters because fee revenue is recurring, less credit-sensitive than lending revenue, and supports the argument that AXP deserves a premium multiple relative to more economically sensitive card issuers.
However, it also creates a cost question. In 1Q, Card Member services expense rose 49%, driven principally by new Platinum benefits and usage. AXP expects customer-engagement costs to remain elevated, with the full-year variable customer-engagement-cost/revenue ratio around 44%, below the 1Q level of 44.7% but above earlier periods.
The 2Q report should clarify whether the refresh is producing:
The favorable version of the story is that AXP is sacrificing some short-term margins to deepen a high-spend, high-retention customer relationship. The unfavorable version is that premium-card competition forces permanently higher benefit costs.
Credit remains a relative strength for AXP. In 1Q, the company reported:
More recent monthly data indicate further improvement in headline U.S. metrics in 2Q:
| 2Q26 preliminary credit metric | U.S. Consumer | U.S. Small Business |
|---|---|---|
| 30+ day delinquency rate | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| Principal-only net write-off rate | 1.8% | 2.4% |
The important caveat: AXP sold certain previously written-off card balances during June. Management disclosed that this reduced June principal-only write-off rates by approximately 30 bps for U.S. Consumer and 10 bps for U.S. Small Business. The reported 2Q figures also reflect the sale proceeds.
Thus, investors should treat the headline decline in charge-offs as directionally positive, but ask management for the underlying credit trend excluding the portfolio sale. Delinquencies are the cleaner signal, and the lower 2Q delinquency readings are encouraging.
Key call questions: - Are credit trends stable across younger cohorts, newer accounts, and small businesses? - How much of the 2Q provision reflects normal loss replenishment versus reserve changes? - Is macro uncertainty still causing AXP to maintain a conservative reserve overlay?
Commercial Services grew only 4% in 1Q, below consumer and international growth. Management has been candid that small-business cobrand portfolios held for sale will create a low-single-digit drag on SME spend growth beginning in 2Q until those portfolio exits are lapped. The company expects negligible pretax-income impact.
The near-term question is whether underlying commercial demand is improving enough to offset that mechanical headwind. Longer term, AXP is investing heavily in the opportunity: management has outlined eight new or enhanced commercial products and capabilities for 2026, including a business cash-back card, corporate cash-back product, and expense-management tools.
For 2Q, commercial is more likely to be a sentiment variable than a major earnings driver. Better-than-expected organic B2B growth would strengthen the case that AXP has another leg of volume growth beyond premium consumer cards. Persistent softness would reinforce the view that commercial initiatives are a 2027 rather than 2026 catalyst.
AXP reiterated FY26 guidance after 1Q:
| FY26 guidance | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 9%–10% |
| EPS | $17.30–$17.90 |
| Marketing expense growth | Mid-single digits |
| Variable customer-engagement costs / revenue | ~44% |
The guidance posture is important. Management said 1Q performance was stronger than expected, but chose to direct part of the upside into marketing and technology investments. As a result, a simple EPS beat may not translate into a guidance raise.
Investors should be prepared for management to reaffirm rather than raise FY26 outlook even if 2Q results are solid. A reiteration would be more acceptable if accompanied by evidence that the incremental spending is generating attractive acquisition economics and preserving medium-term revenue momentum.
One additional earnings-quality consideration: 1Q benefited from discrete items, including a favorable European VAT court decision and a gain related to the Swiss joint-venture acquisition. Those items helped create capacity for the higher investment plan. A cleaner 2Q earnings profile—less reliant on such gains—would be viewed favorably.
AXP’s 2Q print is primarily a test of durability, not a turnaround. The company has already shown that premium customers, card-fee growth, international expansion, and stable credit can support double-digit revenue growth. The market now needs confirmation that this strength persisted through 2Q—and that the company can invest aggressively in Platinum benefits, acquisition, commercial tools, and AI without diluting the long-term earnings algorithm.
The most important data points will be FX-adjusted billed-business growth, Platinum economics, underlying credit trends, and the credibility of unchanged FY26 guidance.