{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Core Organic Growth ex-contingents (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~+0.3% vs. cons +0.57%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Contingent Commissions (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$60M vs. cons $59.6M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adj. EBITDAC Margin (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~33.7% vs. cons 33.9%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY 2026 Organic Growth (qualitative)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide reiterate ~2.5% back-half ceiling vs. cons +1.5% FY",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY 2026 Contingent Commissions",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide reiterate 'up vs. $255M' vs. cons $301.6M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Howden / Pharmacy headwinds (qualitative)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide confirm both persist through Q3; no new disclosures",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "FOLLOW-THROUGH \u2014 sell-side trims H2 estimates on unchanged guidance; short base (8.5 DTC) provides partial floor but does not reverse the drift",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}