| BX |
Report |
Distributable EPS (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.37 vs. cons $1.33 |
MEDIUM |
| BX |
Report |
Total gross inflows (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$58B vs. cons ~$54B |
LOW |
| BX |
Report |
Fee-related earnings / FRE per share (Q2'26) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$1.5B (~$1.27/sh) vs. cons ~$1.27/sh |
MEDIUM |
| BX |
Guide |
BCRED / wealth-channel private-credit net flows |
BETTER |
guide ~-$1.0B vs. cons ~-$1.5B (Q2'26 net flows; mgmt frames redemptions as peaking post-5% gate) |
MEDIUM |
| BX |
Guide |
2H realization / net-realized-perf cadence |
LOWER |
guide net realizations ~$400M vs. cons ~$500M (2H'26; renewed Iran/Brent ~$95 pushes exits out) |
MEDIUM |
| BX |
Guide |
FRE 2H acceleration / base mgmt-fee growth |
UNCHANGED |
guide 2H FRE growth reaffirmed ~mid-teens vs. cons ~mid-teens (2H'26; Q4 fee-holiday roll-off) |
MEDIUM |
| BX |
Guide |
Total AUM |
BETTER |
guide ~$1.33T vs. cons ~$1.32T (Q2'26) |
LOW |
| BX |
Guide |
Dividend |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$1.16 vs. cons ~$1.16 (Q2'26) |
MEDIUM |
| BX |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| BX |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.5% (FADE) |
Low-bar setup (BX -23% YTD) plus an FRE-driven beat and management framing BCRED redemptions as peaking after the June gate should spark a relief pop on day 1. But the out-period math cuts the other way: with Iran/oil pushing realizations into an uncertain 2H, sell-side trims out-quarter realized-perf and DE estimates even after the beat, and the credit/data-center-permitting overhang (QTS Virginia) caps multiple re-rating — so the initial gain gives back roughly half over 5 days. |
LOW |