{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Distributable EPS (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.37 vs. cons $1.33",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total gross inflows (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$58B vs. cons ~$54B",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Fee-related earnings / FRE per share (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.5B (~$1.27/sh) vs. cons ~$1.27/sh",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "BCRED / wealth-channel private-credit net flows",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~-$1.0B vs. cons ~-$1.5B (Q2'26 net flows; mgmt frames redemptions as peaking post-5% gate)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "2H realization / net-realized-perf cadence",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide net realizations ~$400M vs. cons ~$500M (2H'26; renewed Iran/Brent ~$95 pushes exits out)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FRE 2H acceleration / base mgmt-fee growth",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide 2H FRE growth reaffirmed ~mid-teens vs. cons ~mid-teens (2H'26; Q4 fee-holiday roll-off)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total AUM",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.33T vs. cons ~$1.32T (Q2'26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Dividend",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.16 vs. cons ~$1.16 (Q2'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Low-bar setup (BX -23% YTD) plus an FRE-driven beat and management framing BCRED redemptions as peaking after the June gate should spark a relief pop on day 1. But the out-period math cuts the other way: with Iran/oil pushing realizations into an uncertain 2H, sell-side trims out-quarter realized-perf and DE estimates even after the beat, and the credit/data-center-permitting overhang (QTS Virginia) caps multiple re-rating \u2014 so the initial gain gives back roughly half over 5 days.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}