| BX |
Report |
Distributable EPS (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.36 vs. cons $1.32 |
MEDIUM |
| BX |
Report |
Realized Performance Revenues + Realized Principal Investment Income (Q2 2026) |
MISS |
pred ~$700M vs. cons $746M |
MEDIUM |
| BX |
Report |
Total Fundraising / Inflows (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$58B vs. cons $54B |
MEDIUM |
| BX |
Guide |
Base Management Fee reacceleration guidance (H2 2026) |
BETTER |
guide ~+9% YoY growth vs. cons ~+6% YoY growth (H2 2026) |
LOW |
| BX |
Guide |
BCRED / wealth-channel net flow trajectory (Q2 2026) |
BETTER |
guide ~-$0.6B net outflow vs. cons ~-$1.2B net outflow (Q2 2026) |
LOW |
| BX |
Guide |
Quarterly dividend per share declared with results (Q2 2026) |
BETTER |
guide ~$1.18/share vs. cons ~$1.14/share (Q2 2026) |
LOW |
| BX |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.8% |
— |
LOW |
| BX |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-4.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
BX's last two reports (Q4'25 and Q1'26) both showed decent headline beats yet negative idiosyncratic drift that intensified over the following days (residuals of roughly -2.4% day-1 widening to -6.75% and -5.2% widening to -7.6% by day+5), driven by sell-side pushing out the timeline for Credit/Real Estate fee-AUM troughing and BCRED wealth-channel redemption overhangs even as headline DE beat. With the realization revenue swing-factor likely landing below the analyst-modeled $746M full-quarter run-rate (despite the reassuring pre-announcement), and consensus already trimmed into the print, any incremental commentary suggesting further-out H2 fee reacceleration or real assets softness lingers should trigger similar out-period estimate cuts, pulling the stock lower through the week even if day-1 reaction is only modestly negative. |
LOW |