{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Distributable EPS (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.36 vs. cons $1.32",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Realized Performance Revenues + Realized Principal Investment Income (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$700M vs. cons $746M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total Fundraising / Inflows (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$58B vs. cons $54B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Base Management Fee reacceleration guidance (H2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~+9% YoY growth vs. cons ~+6% YoY growth (H2 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "BCRED / wealth-channel net flow trajectory (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~-$0.6B net outflow vs. cons ~-$1.2B net outflow (Q2 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Quarterly dividend per share declared with results (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.18/share vs. cons ~$1.14/share (Q2 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.8,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -4.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "BX's last two reports (Q4'25 and Q1'26) both showed decent headline beats yet negative idiosyncratic drift that intensified over the following days (residuals of roughly -2.4% day-1 widening to -6.75% and -5.2% widening to -7.6% by day+5), driven by sell-side pushing out the timeline for Credit/Real Estate fee-AUM troughing and BCRED wealth-channel redemption overhangs even as headline DE beat. With the realization revenue swing-factor likely landing below the analyst-modeled $746M full-quarter run-rate (despite the reassuring pre-announcement), and consensus already trimmed into the print, any incremental commentary suggesting further-out H2 fee reacceleration or real assets softness lingers should trigger similar out-period estimate cuts, pulling the stock lower through the week even if day-1 reaction is only modestly negative.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}